Official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and consistent numerical weather models established a maximum of 13°C for Moscow on October 4, 2026, under partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds of 3–8 m/s, and stable high pressure near 750 mmHg. Daytime readings climbed from roughly 11°C in the morning to the afternoon peak before cooling overnight, matching climatological norms for early October in the region. This alignment of verified observational data with model consensus drove the market's 100% implied probability on the 13°C outcome. Only an abrupt steering-pattern shift or post-analysis revision of official station records could realistically alter resolution.