Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, following the late-June heatwave that pushed Paris highs near 40°C, point to moderating conditions with a July 1 maximum most likely in the 26–27°C range. Key differentiators include variable low-level advection of slightly warmer continental air versus increased cloud cover or Atlantic influence that could cap temperatures a degree lower, plus uncertainties in daytime boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any residual ridging. Météo-France seasonal outlooks favor above-normal July warmth overall, yet short-range guidance shows tight clustering around these values with limited potential for outliers above 28°C or below 25°C absent rapid pattern shifts. Traders weigh these model spreads against historical July variability centered near 25°C.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Paris on July 1?
Highest temperature in Paris on July 1?
26°C 33%
27°C 28%
25°C 18%
28°C 14%
NOWE
$17,571 Wol.
NOWE
$17,571 Wol.
Jul 1, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
6%
25°C
18%
26°C
33%
27°C
28%
28°C
14%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 33%
27°C 28%
25°C 18%
28°C 14%
NOWE
$17,571 Wol.
NOWE
$17,571 Wol.
Jul 1, 2026
22°C or below
$868 Wol.
1%
23°C
$1,485 Wol.
1%
24°C
$1,259 Wol.
6%
25°C
$1,462 Wol.
18%
26°C
$1,690 Wol.
33%
27°C
$3,099 Wol.
28%
28°C
$2,251 Wol.
14%
29°C
$841 Wol.
1%
30°C
$865 Wol.
<1%
31°C
$1,511 Wol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$2,239 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, following the late-June heatwave that pushed Paris highs near 40°C, point to moderating conditions with a July 1 maximum most likely in the 26–27°C range. Key differentiators include variable low-level advection of slightly warmer continental air versus increased cloud cover or Atlantic influence that could cap temperatures a degree lower, plus uncertainties in daytime boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any residual ridging. Météo-France seasonal outlooks favor above-normal July warmth overall, yet short-range guidance shows tight clustering around these values with limited potential for outliers above 28°C or below 25°C absent rapid pattern shifts. Traders weigh these model spreads against historical July variability centered near 25°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 29, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Wolumen
$17,571Data zakończenia
Jul 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 29, 2026, 12:01 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, following the late-June heatwave that pushed Paris highs near 40°C, point to moderating conditions with a July 1 maximum most likely in the 26–27°C range. Key differentiators include variable low-level advection of slightly warmer continental air versus increased cloud cover or Atlantic influence that could cap temperatures a degree lower, plus uncertainties in daytime boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any residual ridging. Météo-France seasonal outlooks favor above-normal July warmth overall, yet short-range guidance shows tight clustering around these values with limited potential for outliers above 28°C or below 25°C absent rapid pattern shifts. Traders weigh these model spreads against historical July variability centered near 25°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$17,571Data zakończenia
Jul 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 29, 2026, 12:01 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, following the late-June heatwave that pushed Paris highs near 40°C, point to moderating conditions with a July 1 maximum most likely in the 26–27°C range. Key differentiators include variable low-level advection of slightly warmer continental air versus increased cloud cover or Atlantic influence that could cap temperatures a degree lower, plus uncertainties in daytime boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any residual ridging. Météo-France seasonal outlooks favor above-normal July warmth overall, yet short-range guidance shows tight clustering around these values with limited potential for outliers above 28°C or below 25°C absent rapid pattern shifts. Traders weigh these model spreads against historical July variability centered near 25°C.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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