Latest National Weather Service forecast models indicate a highest temperature in San Francisco today likely falling in the 68–71 °F range, driven by a weakening marine layer that allows partial afternoon sunshine while sea breezes keep coastal areas cooler. This setup produces tight market-implied odds between the 68–69 °F and 70–71 °F bins because small shifts in onshore flow or cloud cover can alter peak readings by a degree or two. Historical May climatology shows average highs near 66 °F at the official downtown station, so the current outlook reflects modestly above-normal warmth from a brief ridge of high pressure. Traders are closely watching the next model runs and real-time observations through the afternoon, as any strengthening of the stratus deck could cap the high below 68 °F.