Market-implied odds reflect a near-certain trader consensus that Shenzhen’s official high temperature for August 12 will reach exactly 36 °C, consistent with real-time forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration showing peak afternoon readings at that level under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Recent model runs indicate minimal deviation expected from this value, with dew points and wind patterns supporting continued heat without triggering the next threshold. Historical August climatology for the region places typical highs near 33–34 °C, making today’s conditions an above-normal but well-observed event. Resolution hinges on the final 24-hour maximum reported by the Shenzhen station; only an unforecasted late surge or measurement revision could alter the outcome before the market settles.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Shenzhen on August 12?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 12?
36°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$143,774 Wol.
$143,774 Wol.
Aug 12, 2026
28°C or below
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
Yes
37°C
No
38°C or higher
No
36°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$143,774 Wol.
$143,774 Wol.
Aug 12, 2026
28°C or below
$564 Wol.
No
29°C
$564 Wol.
No
30°C
$2,405 Wol.
No
31°C
$1,525 Wol.
No
32°C
$1,993 Wol.
No
33°C
$9,639 Wol.
No
34°C
$39,871 Wol.
No
35°C
$47,798 Wol.
No
36°C
$19,756 Wol.
Yes
37°C
$11,002 Wol.
No
38°C or higher
$8,659 Wol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds reflect a near-certain trader consensus that Shenzhen’s official high temperature for August 12 will reach exactly 36 °C, consistent with real-time forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration showing peak afternoon readings at that level under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Recent model runs indicate minimal deviation expected from this value, with dew points and wind patterns supporting continued heat without triggering the next threshold. Historical August climatology for the region places typical highs near 33–34 °C, making today’s conditions an above-normal but well-observed event. Resolution hinges on the final 24-hour maximum reported by the Shenzhen station; only an unforecasted late surge or measurement revision could alter the outcome before the market settles.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Wolumen
$143,774Data zakończenia
Aug 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds reflect a near-certain trader consensus that Shenzhen’s official high temperature for August 12 will reach exactly 36 °C, consistent with real-time forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration showing peak afternoon readings at that level under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Recent model runs indicate minimal deviation expected from this value, with dew points and wind patterns supporting continued heat without triggering the next threshold. Historical August climatology for the region places typical highs near 33–34 °C, making today’s conditions an above-normal but well-observed event. Resolution hinges on the final 24-hour maximum reported by the Shenzhen station; only an unforecasted late surge or measurement revision could alter the outcome before the market settles.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$143,774Data zakończenia
Aug 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
Market-implied odds reflect a near-certain trader consensus that Shenzhen’s official high temperature for August 12 will reach exactly 36 °C, consistent with real-time forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration showing peak afternoon readings at that level under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Recent model runs indicate minimal deviation expected from this value, with dew points and wind patterns supporting continued heat without triggering the next threshold. Historical August climatology for the region places typical highs near 33–34 °C, making today’s conditions an above-normal but well-observed event. Resolution hinges on the final 24-hour maximum reported by the Shenzhen station; only an unforecasted late surge or measurement revision could alter the outcome before the market settles.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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