Current short-range ensemble forecasts from major models indicate Warsaw highs clustering near 22–23°C on July 12, with trader consensus reflected in the tight spread among 21°C, 22°C, and 23°C-or-higher outcomes. Differentiating factors include timing of any Atlantic frontal passage, duration of cloud cover that limits surface insolation, and precipitation-driven evaporative cooling, all of which can shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Overcast or showery conditions in the latest guidance suppress peak heating relative to clearer scenarios, while modest warm advection and boundary-layer mixing support values near the seasonal average of 24°C. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could reprice these closely matched contracts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Warsaw on July 12?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 12?
23°C or higher 36%
21°C 30%
22°C 30%
20°C 7%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 12, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
3%
20°C
7%
21°C
30%
22°C
30%
23°C or higher
36%
23°C or higher 36%
21°C 30%
22°C 30%
20°C 7%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 12, 2026
13°C or below
$286 Wol.
<1%
14°C
$356 Wol.
<1%
15°C
$356 Wol.
<1%
16°C
$150 Wol.
<1%
17°C
$119 Wol.
<1%
18°C
$35 Wol.
<1%
19°C
$68 Wol.
3%
20°C
$30 Wol.
7%
21°C
$64 Wol.
30%
22°C
$28 Wol.
30%
23°C or higher
$182 Wol.
36%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range ensemble forecasts from major models indicate Warsaw highs clustering near 22–23°C on July 12, with trader consensus reflected in the tight spread among 21°C, 22°C, and 23°C-or-higher outcomes. Differentiating factors include timing of any Atlantic frontal passage, duration of cloud cover that limits surface insolation, and precipitation-driven evaporative cooling, all of which can shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Overcast or showery conditions in the latest guidance suppress peak heating relative to clearer scenarios, while modest warm advection and boundary-layer mixing support values near the seasonal average of 24°C. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could reprice these closely matched contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,674Data zakończenia
Jul 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range ensemble forecasts from major models indicate Warsaw highs clustering near 22–23°C on July 12, with trader consensus reflected in the tight spread among 21°C, 22°C, and 23°C-or-higher outcomes. Differentiating factors include timing of any Atlantic frontal passage, duration of cloud cover that limits surface insolation, and precipitation-driven evaporative cooling, all of which can shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Overcast or showery conditions in the latest guidance suppress peak heating relative to clearer scenarios, while modest warm advection and boundary-layer mixing support values near the seasonal average of 24°C. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could reprice these closely matched contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$1,674Data zakończenia
Jul 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range ensemble forecasts from major models indicate Warsaw highs clustering near 22–23°C on July 12, with trader consensus reflected in the tight spread among 21°C, 22°C, and 23°C-or-higher outcomes. Differentiating factors include timing of any Atlantic frontal passage, duration of cloud cover that limits surface insolation, and precipitation-driven evaporative cooling, all of which can shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Overcast or showery conditions in the latest guidance suppress peak heating relative to clearer scenarios, while modest warm advection and boundary-layer mixing support values near the seasonal average of 24°C. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could reprice these closely matched contracts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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