**Strong southerly winds and cool maritime air from a polar outbreak have kept Wellington’s daytime maximum tightly constrained near 10°C on August 16, 2026.** Official MetService forecasts and observations indicate a maximum around 8–10°C under mostly cloudy skies with showers and gusty southerlies, consistent with the broader cool anomaly affecting New Zealand this winter. These conditions suppress solar heating and advect colder air from higher latitudes, aligning with NIWA’s near-average to below-average temperature outlook for the region. Historical mid-winter maxima in Wellington typically reach 12–13°C, but the current synoptic setup has lowered the ceiling. The 99.9% market-implied probability for exactly 10°C reflects this consensus from real-time data and model agreement. A rapid wind shift to northerly flow or unexpected clearing could allow a brief spike above 10°C, though such changes are unlikely within the remaining hours of the day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Wellington on August 16?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 16?
10°C 99.8%
11°C <1%
4°C or below <1%
5°C <1%
$62,166 Wol.
$62,166 Wol.
Aug 16, 2026
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
100%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C or higher
<1%
10°C 99.8%
11°C <1%
4°C or below <1%
5°C <1%
$62,166 Wol.
$62,166 Wol.
Aug 16, 2026
4°C or below
$763 Wol.
<1%
5°C
$907 Wol.
<1%
6°C
$1,049 Wol.
<1%
7°C
$3,612 Wol.
<1%
8°C
$5,808 Wol.
<1%
9°C
$27,145 Wol.
<1%
10°C
$11,566 Wol.
100%
11°C
$5,928 Wol.
<1%
12°C
$3,802 Wol.
<1%
13°C
$1,300 Wol.
<1%
14°C or higher
$287 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong southerly winds and cool maritime air from a polar outbreak have kept Wellington’s daytime maximum tightly constrained near 10°C on August 16, 2026.** Official MetService forecasts and observations indicate a maximum around 8–10°C under mostly cloudy skies with showers and gusty southerlies, consistent with the broader cool anomaly affecting New Zealand this winter. These conditions suppress solar heating and advect colder air from higher latitudes, aligning with NIWA’s near-average to below-average temperature outlook for the region. Historical mid-winter maxima in Wellington typically reach 12–13°C, but the current synoptic setup has lowered the ceiling. The 99.9% market-implied probability for exactly 10°C reflects this consensus from real-time data and model agreement. A rapid wind shift to northerly flow or unexpected clearing could allow a brief spike above 10°C, though such changes are unlikely within the remaining hours of the day.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$62,166Data zakończenia
Aug 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong southerly winds and cool maritime air from a polar outbreak have kept Wellington’s daytime maximum tightly constrained near 10°C on August 16, 2026.** Official MetService forecasts and observations indicate a maximum around 8–10°C under mostly cloudy skies with showers and gusty southerlies, consistent with the broader cool anomaly affecting New Zealand this winter. These conditions suppress solar heating and advect colder air from higher latitudes, aligning with NIWA’s near-average to below-average temperature outlook for the region. Historical mid-winter maxima in Wellington typically reach 12–13°C, but the current synoptic setup has lowered the ceiling. The 99.9% market-implied probability for exactly 10°C reflects this consensus from real-time data and model agreement. A rapid wind shift to northerly flow or unexpected clearing could allow a brief spike above 10°C, though such changes are unlikely within the remaining hours of the day.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$62,166Data zakończenia
Aug 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong southerly winds and cool maritime air from a polar outbreak have kept Wellington’s daytime maximum tightly constrained near 10°C on August 16, 2026.** Official MetService forecasts and observations indicate a maximum around 8–10°C under mostly cloudy skies with showers and gusty southerlies, consistent with the broader cool anomaly affecting New Zealand this winter. These conditions suppress solar heating and advect colder air from higher latitudes, aligning with NIWA’s near-average to below-average temperature outlook for the region. Historical mid-winter maxima in Wellington typically reach 12–13°C, but the current synoptic setup has lowered the ceiling. The 99.9% market-implied probability for exactly 10°C reflects this consensus from real-time data and model agreement. A rapid wind shift to northerly flow or unexpected clearing could allow a brief spike above 10°C, though such changes are unlikely within the remaining hours of the day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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