**Trader consensus heavily favors exactly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake worldwide during September 14–20, 2026, at 97.5% implied probability.** Official USGS and international seismic catalogs record a single M6.5 event on September 17 in the Fox Islands region of the Aleutian arc, with the next largest quake—a M6.4 near Papua New Guinea on September 20—falling just below the threshold. No other events met the criteria in the seven-day window, consistent with typical weekly global rates of roughly one to two M6.5+ quakes. The market-implied odds reflect verified catalog data rather than forecasts, though final resolution could shift only if post-event magnitude revisions or newly detected events alter the official count.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 14 - September 20?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 14 - September 20?
1 97.5%
2 1.3%
0 <1%
3 <1%
$15,690 Wol.
$15,690 Wol.
Sep 21, 2026
0
<1%
1
98%
2
1%
3
<1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
1 97.5%
2 1.3%
0 <1%
3 <1%
$15,690 Wol.
$15,690 Wol.
Sep 21, 2026
0
$5,878 Wol.
<1%
1
$5,184 Wol.
98%
2
$2,867 Wol.
1%
3
$708 Wol.
<1%
4
$241 Wol.
<1%
5
$467 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.**Trader consensus heavily favors exactly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake worldwide during September 14–20, 2026, at 97.5% implied probability.** Official USGS and international seismic catalogs record a single M6.5 event on September 17 in the Fox Islands region of the Aleutian arc, with the next largest quake—a M6.4 near Papua New Guinea on September 20—falling just below the threshold. No other events met the criteria in the seven-day window, consistent with typical weekly global rates of roughly one to two M6.5+ quakes. The market-implied odds reflect verified catalog data rather than forecasts, though final resolution could shift only if post-event magnitude revisions or newly detected events alter the official count.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 11, 2026, 4:53 PM ET
Wolumen
$15,690Data zakończenia
Sep 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 11, 2026, 4:53 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.**Trader consensus heavily favors exactly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake worldwide during September 14–20, 2026, at 97.5% implied probability.** Official USGS and international seismic catalogs record a single M6.5 event on September 17 in the Fox Islands region of the Aleutian arc, with the next largest quake—a M6.4 near Papua New Guinea on September 20—falling just below the threshold. No other events met the criteria in the seven-day window, consistent with typical weekly global rates of roughly one to two M6.5+ quakes. The market-implied odds reflect verified catalog data rather than forecasts, though final resolution could shift only if post-event magnitude revisions or newly detected events alter the official count.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Wolumen
$15,690Data zakończenia
Sep 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 11, 2026, 4:53 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors exactly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake worldwide during September 14–20, 2026, at 97.5% implied probability.** Official USGS and international seismic catalogs record a single M6.5 event on September 17 in the Fox Islands region of the Aleutian arc, with the next largest quake—a M6.4 near Papua New Guinea on September 20—falling just below the threshold. No other events met the criteria in the seven-day window, consistent with typical weekly global rates of roughly one to two M6.5+ quakes. The market-implied odds reflect verified catalog data rather than forecasts, though final resolution could shift only if post-event magnitude revisions or newly detected events alter the official count.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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