Jung Chung-rae assumed leadership of South Korea’s Democratic Party in August 2025 and faces re-election at the party’s national convention scheduled for August 2026. Traders assign an 80.5 percent probability that he will no longer hold the post by year-end, reflecting internal resistance from parliamentary factions and President Lee Jae-myung’s allies who have floated alternatives such as Prime Minister Kim Min-seok. The June 3 local elections serve as the immediate test; weaker-than-expected results would strengthen the case against Jung’s re-election under the one-member-one-vote system he advanced earlier this year. Recent delays on special counsel legislation and nomination-rule disputes have underscored party divisions, reinforcing expectations that the August convention will produce a leadership change.