Recent moderation following a record-breaking Northeast heat wave has driven the tight clustering of Polymarket odds around 68–73°F for NYC’s July 9 minimum, as models converge on overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s after daytime highs near 80°F. Key variables include the timing of partial clearing versus lingering cloud cover and scattered showers, which modulate radiative cooling rates, plus light southerly flow that limits advection of cooler air. NWS and private guidance show modest spread due to uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and urban heat retention, producing the observed market balance between 66–67°F and 72–73°F bins. Updated model runs and evening observations on July 8 will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in NYC on July 9?
Lowest temperature in NYC on July 9?
74-75°F 85.5%
72-73°F 6%
68-69°F 1.9%
70-71°F 1.1%
$28,170 Wol.
$28,170 Wol.
Jul 9, 2026
59°F or below
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
2%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
31%
74-75°F
86%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F or higher
<1%
74-75°F 85.5%
72-73°F 6%
68-69°F 1.9%
70-71°F 1.1%
$28,170 Wol.
$28,170 Wol.
Jul 9, 2026
59°F or below
$397 Wol.
<1%
60-61°F
$392 Wol.
<1%
62-63°F
$510 Wol.
<1%
64-65°F
$1,412 Wol.
1%
66-67°F
$1,382 Wol.
1%
68-69°F
$1,235 Wol.
2%
70-71°F
$4,596 Wol.
1%
72-73°F
$6,886 Wol.
31%
74-75°F
$8,214 Wol.
86%
76-77°F
$1,167 Wol.
<1%
78°F or higher
$1,978 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent moderation following a record-breaking Northeast heat wave has driven the tight clustering of Polymarket odds around 68–73°F for NYC’s July 9 minimum, as models converge on overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s after daytime highs near 80°F. Key variables include the timing of partial clearing versus lingering cloud cover and scattered showers, which modulate radiative cooling rates, plus light southerly flow that limits advection of cooler air. NWS and private guidance show modest spread due to uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and urban heat retention, producing the observed market balance between 66–67°F and 72–73°F bins. Updated model runs and evening observations on July 8 will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 7, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Wolumen
$28,170Data zakończenia
Jul 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 7, 2026, 9:30 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent moderation following a record-breaking Northeast heat wave has driven the tight clustering of Polymarket odds around 68–73°F for NYC’s July 9 minimum, as models converge on overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s after daytime highs near 80°F. Key variables include the timing of partial clearing versus lingering cloud cover and scattered showers, which modulate radiative cooling rates, plus light southerly flow that limits advection of cooler air. NWS and private guidance show modest spread due to uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and urban heat retention, producing the observed market balance between 66–67°F and 72–73°F bins. Updated model runs and evening observations on July 8 will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$28,170Data zakończenia
Jul 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 7, 2026, 9:30 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent moderation following a record-breaking Northeast heat wave has driven the tight clustering of Polymarket odds around 68–73°F for NYC’s July 9 minimum, as models converge on overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s after daytime highs near 80°F. Key variables include the timing of partial clearing versus lingering cloud cover and scattered showers, which modulate radiative cooling rates, plus light southerly flow that limits advection of cooler air. NWS and private guidance show modest spread due to uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and urban heat retention, producing the observed market balance between 66–67°F and 72–73°F bins. Updated model runs and evening observations on July 8 will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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