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Świat·Niemcy

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

icon for Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
Świat·Niemcy

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

No Next Chancellor before 2028 45%

Carsten Linnemann 30%

Boris Pistorius 13%

Hendrik Wüst 12%

Polymarket
NOWE

No Next Chancellor before 2028 45%

Carsten Linnemann 30%

Boris Pistorius 13%

Hendrik Wüst 12%

Polymarket
NOWE
icon for No Next Chancellor before 2028

No Next Chancellor before 2028

$363 Wol.

45%

icon for Carsten Linnemann

Carsten Linnemann

$23 Wol.

30%

icon for Boris Pistorius

Boris Pistorius

$23 Wol.

13%

icon for Hendrik Wüst

Hendrik Wüst

$61 Wol.

12%

icon for Felix Banaszak

Felix Banaszak

$23 Wol.

10%

icon for Katharina Dröge

Katharina Dröge

$59 Wol.

10%

icon for Lars Klingbeil

Lars Klingbeil

$23 Wol.

9%

icon for Jens Spahn

Jens Spahn

$41 Wol.

8%

icon for Markus Söder

Markus Söder

$47 Wol.

7%

icon for Tino Chrupalla

Tino Chrupalla

$49 Wol.

7%

icon for Sahra Wagenknecht

Sahra Wagenknecht

$49 Wol.

7%

icon for Alice Weidel

Alice Weidel

$103 Wol.

6%

icon for Heidi Reichinnek

Heidi Reichinnek

$23 Wol.

4%

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Current uncertainty around Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s position amid CDU setbacks keeps the market tight.** Recent state election losses, including a sharp AfD advance and CDU decline in Saxony-Anhalt, combined with national polls showing the Union at record lows and widespread doubt about Merz’s leadership, have fueled internal party discussions of a potential early replacement. Speculation centers on figures such as Hendrik Wüst and Markus Söder as possible successors within a continuing CDU-SPD coalition, while popular SPD Defense Minister Boris Pistorius draws attention despite his party’s weaker standing. The “no change before 2028” outcome at 46% reflects the absence of a confirmed trigger or agreed successor, with upcoming Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin votes on September 20 serving as immediate tests that could either consolidate Merz or accelerate movement toward a new chancellor. Trader prices across numerous named candidates remain dispersed because no single alternative has consolidated support.

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.

To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$886
Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2028
Rynek otwarty
Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x69c47De9D...
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Current uncertainty around Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s position amid CDU setbacks keeps the market tight.** Recent state election losses, including a sharp AfD advance and CDU decline in Saxony-Anhalt, combined with national polls showing the Union at record lows and widespread doubt about Merz’s leadership, have fueled internal party discussions of a potential early replacement. Speculation centers on figures such as Hendrik Wüst and Markus Söder as possible successors within a continuing CDU-SPD coalition, while popular SPD Defense Minister Boris Pistorius draws attention despite his party’s weaker standing. The “no change before 2028” outcome at 46% reflects the absence of a confirmed trigger or agreed successor, with upcoming Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin votes on September 20 serving as immediate tests that could either consolidate Merz or accelerate movement toward a new chancellor. Trader prices across numerous named candidates remain dispersed because no single alternative has consolidated support.

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.

To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$886
Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2028
Rynek otwarty
Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x69c47De9D...

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Często zadawane pytania

"Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 13 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "No Next Chancellor before 2028" z 45%, za nim "Carsten Linnemann" z 30%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 45¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 45% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

"Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?" to nowo utworzony rynek na Polymarket, uruchomiony Sep 15, 2026. Jako wczesny rynek, to Twoja okazja, aby być jednym z pierwszych traderów, którzy ustalą kursy i określą początkowe sygnały cenowe rynku. Możesz też dodać tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić wolumen i aktywność handlową w miarę rozwoju rynku.

Aby handlować na "Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?", przeglądaj 13 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?" jest "No Next Chancellor before 2028" z 45%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 45% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Carsten Linnemann" z 30%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.