Friedrich Merz’s coalition government with the SPD has advanced key tax, labor, pension, and health reforms since mid-2025, helping sustain its parliamentary majority despite record-low approval ratings around 13-19 percent. Germany’s parliamentary rules make early removal difficult, requiring either a successful constructive vote of no confidence or a chancellor-initiated confidence vote that could trigger new elections—steps Merz has avoided and that lack sufficient cross-party support. Recent internal CDU speculation about a leadership change ahead of September 2026 state elections has not produced formal challenges, and the coalition continues to function. Traders therefore assign an 82.5 percent probability that Merz remains chancellor through 2026, viewing the institutional and procedural barriers as outweighing current polling weakness and AfD gains.