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Polityka·Australia

Next Premier of Victoria

icon for Next Premier of Victoria
Polityka·Australia

Next Premier of Victoria

Jess Wilson 64%

Ben Carroll 21%

Warren Pickering 11%

Jacinta Allan 4.5%

Polymarket
NOWE

$10,677 Wol.

Jess Wilson 64%

Ben Carroll 21%

Warren Pickering 11%

Jacinta Allan 4.5%

Polymarket
NOWE

$10,677 Wol.

icon for Jess Wilson

Jess Wilson

$1,017 Wol.

64%

icon for Ben Carroll

Ben Carroll

$643 Wol.

21%

icon for Warren Pickering

Warren Pickering

$978 Wol.

11%

icon for Jacinta Allan

Jacinta Allan

$192 Wol.

5%

icon for Emma Kealy

Emma Kealy

$1,028 Wol.

4%

icon for Sonya Kilkenny

Sonya Kilkenny

$100 Wol.

4%

icon for Steve Dimopoulos

Steve Dimopoulos

$100 Wol.

4%

icon for Gabrielle Williams

Gabrielle Williams

$50 Wol.

3%

icon for David Southwick

David Southwick

$50 Wol.

3%

icon for Brad Battin

Brad Battin

$1,028 Wol.

<1%

icon for James Newbury

James Newbury

$1,066 Wol.

<1%

icon for Danny O'Brien

Danny O'Brien

$1,303 Wol.

<1%

icon for Ellen Sandell

Ellen Sandell

$1,028 Wol.

<1%

icon for Jaclyn Symes

Jaclyn Symes

$1,028 Wol.

<1%

icon for Sam Groth

Sam Groth

$1,066 Wol.

<1%

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jess Wilson leads trader pricing for Victoria's next premier at 64 percent, reflecting sustained Coalition polling advantages of 55-45 on two-party preferred measures and her consistent edge in preferred-premier surveys over Labor's Ben Carroll. Carroll assumed the premiership in late July 2026 after Jacinta Allan's resignation under caucus pressure, yet multiple August polls show Labor's primary vote remaining in the mid-20s while One Nation draws 22-24 percent. Wilson, who took Liberal leadership in November 2025, has centered her campaign on debt reduction, housing supply, and justice reforms ahead of the November 28 election. Lower odds for Allan, One Nation's Warren Pickering, and other Labor figures align with these trends and the structural headwinds facing the incumbent government.

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$10,677
Data zakończenia
Nov 28, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Aug 27, 2026, 8:24 AM ET

Źródło rozstrzygnięcia

https://www.vic.gov.au/premier

Rozstrzygający

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jess Wilson leads trader pricing for Victoria's next premier at 64 percent, reflecting sustained Coalition polling advantages of 55-45 on two-party preferred measures and her consistent edge in preferred-premier surveys over Labor's Ben Carroll. Carroll assumed the premiership in late July 2026 after Jacinta Allan's resignation under caucus pressure, yet multiple August polls show Labor's primary vote remaining in the mid-20s while One Nation draws 22-24 percent. Wilson, who took Liberal leadership in November 2025, has centered her campaign on debt reduction, housing supply, and justice reforms ahead of the November 28 election. Lower odds for Allan, One Nation's Warren Pickering, and other Labor figures align with these trends and the structural headwinds facing the incumbent government.

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$10,677
Data zakończenia
Nov 28, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Aug 27, 2026, 8:24 AM ET

Źródło rozstrzygnięcia

https://www.vic.gov.au/premier

Rozstrzygający

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Często zadawane pytania

"Next Premier of Victoria" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 15 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Jess Wilson" z 64%, za nim "Ben Carroll" z 21%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 64¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 64% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Next Premier of Victoria" wygenerował $10.7K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Aug 27, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Next Premier of Victoria", przeglądaj 15 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Next Premier of Victoria" jest "Jess Wilson" z 64%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 64% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Ben Carroll" z 21%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Next Premier of Victoria" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.