Strong trader consensus behind the 94% "No" probability stems from the intense parliamentary backlash and seven-day Senate suspension Pauline Hanson received after her November 2025 burqa stunt, which repeated her 2017 protest tactic. That episode drew widespread condemnation from colleagues across parties, including formal censure for disrupting proceedings, and shifted her public focus toward other issues like migration policy and GST debates through mid-2026. No verified statements or reports indicate plans for another appearance, and the political costs appear to have deterred repetition in an election cycle leading to 2028. An upset remains possible only if she faces another blocked bill and chooses to escalate with the same high-profile gesture despite the precedent of punishment.