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Polityka·PM

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

icon for Next Prime Minister of Italy?
Polityka·PM

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

Giorgia Meloni 52%

Elly Schlein 14%

Giuseppe Conte 13%

Roberto Vannacci 8.0%

Polymarket

$75,585 Wol.

Giorgia Meloni 52%

Elly Schlein 14%

Giuseppe Conte 13%

Roberto Vannacci 8.0%

Polymarket

$75,585 Wol.

Giorgia Meloni

$8,653 Wol.

52%

Elly Schlein

$5,675 Wol.

14%

Giuseppe Conte

$5,139 Wol.

13%

Antonio Tajani

$2,102 Wol.

<1%

Matteo Salvini

$3,330 Wol.

<1%

Guido Crosetto

$1,464 Wol.

<1%

Mario Draghi

$2,268 Wol.

3%

Silvia Salis

$8,526 Wol.

8%

Roberto Vannacci

$33,312 Wol.

8%

Matteo Renzi

$1,567 Wol.

1%

Angelo Bonelli

$1,722 Wol.

<1%

Carlo Calenda

$1,828 Wol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Giorgia Meloni maintains a leading position in trader assessments due to her status as incumbent prime minister of Italy's longest-serving recent government, supported by a center-right coalition that has held power since 2022 amid competitive polling for the election due no later than December 2027. Recent months have seen her bloc face headwinds from a March 2026 referendum defeat on judicial reforms and economic pressures, yet no immediate collapse in stability has occurred. Roberto Vannacci's rising Futuro Nazionale party, polling around 7% and drawing from the nationalist right, introduces fragmentation risks within the coalition while boosting alternative right-wing prospects. Opposition figures Elly Schlein of the Democratic Party and Giuseppe Conte of the Five Star Movement trail as primary challengers, reflecting center-left polling near 41-44% and the structural barriers to unseating an entrenched majority. These dynamics align with current implied probabilities reflecting coalition arithmetic and limited near-term triggers for change.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$75,585
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2028
Rynek otwarty
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Giorgia Meloni maintains a leading position in trader assessments due to her status as incumbent prime minister of Italy's longest-serving recent government, supported by a center-right coalition that has held power since 2022 amid competitive polling for the election due no later than December 2027. Recent months have seen her bloc face headwinds from a March 2026 referendum defeat on judicial reforms and economic pressures, yet no immediate collapse in stability has occurred. Roberto Vannacci's rising Futuro Nazionale party, polling around 7% and drawing from the nationalist right, introduces fragmentation risks within the coalition while boosting alternative right-wing prospects. Opposition figures Elly Schlein of the Democratic Party and Giuseppe Conte of the Five Star Movement trail as primary challengers, reflecting center-left polling near 41-44% and the structural barriers to unseating an entrenched majority. These dynamics align with current implied probabilities reflecting coalition arithmetic and limited near-term triggers for change.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$75,585
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2028
Rynek otwarty
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Często zadawane pytania

"Next Prime Minister of Italy?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 12 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Giorgia Meloni" z 52%, za nim "Elly Schlein" z 14%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 52¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 52% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" wygenerował $75.6K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Apr 21, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Next Prime Minister of Italy?", przeglądaj 12 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" jest "Giorgia Meloni" z 52%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 52% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Elly Schlein" z 14%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.