Labour’s commanding Commons majority of around 165 seats continues to shield the government from defeat on procedural motions, limiting the realistic prospects for any no-confidence vote before the June 30 deadline. Recent heavy losses in the May 7 local elections have triggered internal criticism and prompted ministerial resignations, including Health Secretary Wes Streeting, while the SNP has announced plans to table an amendment to the King’s Speech. Opposition leaders have also pressed for an early motion. However, no formal no-confidence motion has yet been tabled, party whips are maintaining discipline, and historical patterns show governments with such margins rarely face successful procedural challenges without widespread backbench rebellion. Traders therefore assign only an 11.5 percent chance that a vote will occur in the coming weeks.