Democratic generic ballot leads of 5–6 points in recent national polls, aligned with typical midterm losses for the president’s party, underpin trader expectations of Republican House seat declines from the current narrow majority near 219. Republicans must defend a map with limited cushion after 2024, while mid-decade redistricting in multiple states has produced mixed but competitive adjustments. Ongoing primaries, candidate recruitment in battlegrounds, and potential shifts in economic or approval indicators through November keep outcomes fluid. These factors concentrate the highest probabilities on totals below 200 seats, with the closest ranges (190–199) reflecting modest net Democratic gains that could still vary several seats based on turnout and late-cycle developments.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Below 190 28%
190-194 15%
195-199 15%
210-214 9.6%
$261,085 Wol.
$261,085 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Below 190
28%
190-194
15%
195-199
15%
200-204
9%
205-209
8%
210-214
10%
215-219
7%
220-224
9%
225-229
5%
230+
2%
Below 190 28%
190-194 15%
195-199 15%
210-214 9.6%
$261,085 Wol.
$261,085 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Below 190
$25,878 Wol.
28%
190-194
$10,477 Wol.
15%
195-199
$30,184 Wol.
15%
200-204
$23,331 Wol.
9%
205-209
$37,258 Wol.
8%
210-214
$14,047 Wol.
10%
215-219
$10,887 Wol.
7%
220-224
$55,534 Wol.
9%
225-229
$24,101 Wol.
5%
230+
$29,387 Wol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic generic ballot leads of 5–6 points in recent national polls, aligned with typical midterm losses for the president’s party, underpin trader expectations of Republican House seat declines from the current narrow majority near 219. Republicans must defend a map with limited cushion after 2024, while mid-decade redistricting in multiple states has produced mixed but competitive adjustments. Ongoing primaries, candidate recruitment in battlegrounds, and potential shifts in economic or approval indicators through November keep outcomes fluid. These factors concentrate the highest probabilities on totals below 200 seats, with the closest ranges (190–199) reflecting modest net Democratic gains that could still vary several seats based on turnout and late-cycle developments.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Wolumen
$261,085Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic generic ballot leads of 5–6 points in recent national polls, aligned with typical midterm losses for the president’s party, underpin trader expectations of Republican House seat declines from the current narrow majority near 219. Republicans must defend a map with limited cushion after 2024, while mid-decade redistricting in multiple states has produced mixed but competitive adjustments. Ongoing primaries, candidate recruitment in battlegrounds, and potential shifts in economic or approval indicators through November keep outcomes fluid. These factors concentrate the highest probabilities on totals below 200 seats, with the closest ranges (190–199) reflecting modest net Democratic gains that could still vary several seats based on turnout and late-cycle developments.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Wolumen
$261,085Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic generic ballot leads of 5–6 points in recent national polls, aligned with typical midterm losses for the president’s party, underpin trader expectations of Republican House seat declines from the current narrow majority near 219. Republicans must defend a map with limited cushion after 2024, while mid-decade redistricting in multiple states has produced mixed but competitive adjustments. Ongoing primaries, candidate recruitment in battlegrounds, and potential shifts in economic or approval indicators through November keep outcomes fluid. These factors concentrate the highest probabilities on totals below 200 seats, with the closest ranges (190–199) reflecting modest net Democratic gains that could still vary several seats based on turnout and late-cycle developments.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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