Republicans enter the 2026 midterms defending a narrow House majority of roughly 218-220 seats following 2024 gains, creating a low bar for losses amid the typical midterm penalty for the president's party. Recent generic congressional ballots show Democrats ahead by 5-7 points in August polling averages, consistent with special election trends and historical patterns that often produce double-digit seat shifts toward the opposition. Mid-decade redistricting in states like Florida and Tennessee has added some Republican-leaning districts, partially offsetting national headwinds and keeping forecasts clustered near 200-210 seats. The market's spread across sub-190 to low-210 ranges highlights uncertainty over turnout, candidate recruitment in toss-ups, and any late shifts in voter sentiment before November. Events such as further polling movement, primary outcomes, or economic data releases could widen gaps by clarifying the scale of potential Democratic net gains.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Below 190 26%
200-204 17.3%
195-199 15%
190-194 14%
$288,840 Wol.
$288,840 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Below 190
26%
190-194
14%
195-199
15%
200-204
17%
205-209
11%
210-214
9%
215-219
5%
220-224
3%
225-229
5%
230+
3%
Below 190 26%
200-204 17.3%
195-199 15%
190-194 14%
$288,840 Wol.
$288,840 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Below 190
$35,129 Wol.
26%
190-194
$13,814 Wol.
14%
195-199
$32,644 Wol.
15%
200-204
$24,860 Wol.
17%
205-209
$40,227 Wol.
11%
210-214
$15,669 Wol.
9%
215-219
$11,463 Wol.
5%
220-224
$59,267 Wol.
3%
225-229
$24,767 Wol.
5%
230+
$31,001 Wol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Republicans enter the 2026 midterms defending a narrow House majority of roughly 218-220 seats following 2024 gains, creating a low bar for losses amid the typical midterm penalty for the president's party. Recent generic congressional ballots show Democrats ahead by 5-7 points in August polling averages, consistent with special election trends and historical patterns that often produce double-digit seat shifts toward the opposition. Mid-decade redistricting in states like Florida and Tennessee has added some Republican-leaning districts, partially offsetting national headwinds and keeping forecasts clustered near 200-210 seats. The market's spread across sub-190 to low-210 ranges highlights uncertainty over turnout, candidate recruitment in toss-ups, and any late shifts in voter sentiment before November. Events such as further polling movement, primary outcomes, or economic data releases could widen gaps by clarifying the scale of potential Democratic net gains.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Wolumen
$288,840Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Republicans enter the 2026 midterms defending a narrow House majority of roughly 218-220 seats following 2024 gains, creating a low bar for losses amid the typical midterm penalty for the president's party. Recent generic congressional ballots show Democrats ahead by 5-7 points in August polling averages, consistent with special election trends and historical patterns that often produce double-digit seat shifts toward the opposition. Mid-decade redistricting in states like Florida and Tennessee has added some Republican-leaning districts, partially offsetting national headwinds and keeping forecasts clustered near 200-210 seats. The market's spread across sub-190 to low-210 ranges highlights uncertainty over turnout, candidate recruitment in toss-ups, and any late shifts in voter sentiment before November. Events such as further polling movement, primary outcomes, or economic data releases could widen gaps by clarifying the scale of potential Democratic net gains.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$288,840Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republicans enter the 2026 midterms defending a narrow House majority of roughly 218-220 seats following 2024 gains, creating a low bar for losses amid the typical midterm penalty for the president's party. Recent generic congressional ballots show Democrats ahead by 5-7 points in August polling averages, consistent with special election trends and historical patterns that often produce double-digit seat shifts toward the opposition. Mid-decade redistricting in states like Florida and Tennessee has added some Republican-leaning districts, partially offsetting national headwinds and keeping forecasts clustered near 200-210 seats. The market's spread across sub-190 to low-210 ranges highlights uncertainty over turnout, candidate recruitment in toss-ups, and any late shifts in voter sentiment before November. Events such as further polling movement, primary outcomes, or economic data releases could widen gaps by clarifying the scale of potential Democratic net gains.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPowiązane
Czy Partia Republikańska będzie miała 47 lub mniej miejsc w Senacie po wyborach śródokresowych w 2026 roku?
27%
Tak
Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?
25%
Czy Partia Demokratyczna będzie kontrolowała Izbę po wyborach śródokresowych w 2026 roku?
88%
Tak
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