**Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority.** The 2026 elections occur on November 3, with the new Congress convening in January 2027. No change in partisan control is possible before November 2, as results require voting, certification, and the start of the new term. This structural timeline keeps the probability that Republicans will “flip” the chamber by the deadline very low. Recent polling reinforces the market’s view. Democratic candidates lead in several Republican-held battlegrounds, including Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, Maine, and Texas, while Republicans defend more seats overall. Forecasts from multiple models show Democrats with the stronger path to a majority after Election Day. Traders price the pre-election window accordingly, treating any immediate shift as implausible absent an unforeseen vacancy or procedural change outside the normal electoral cycle.