Romania's recent political crisis stems from the May 5 no-confidence vote that ousted Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan's minority government, backed by a 281-4 parliamentary majority after the Social Democrats and far-right AUR withdrew support. President Nicușor Dan has since opened consultations with parties to nominate a new prime minister and secure a majority, explicitly signaling expectations for a pro-European cabinet within a reasonable timeframe rather than pursuing early elections due in 2028. Under Romania's constitution, parliamentary dissolution requires multiple failed investiture attempts within a 60-day window, a threshold analysts view as avoidable given incentives for mainstream and opposition parties to stabilize governance ahead of EU funding deadlines. Traders price the low 9.2% chance of dissolution by July 31 on these negotiation dynamics and institutional barriers, with caretaker status limiting major disruptions in the interim.