SpaceX's rapid iteration on the V3 Starship configuration, featuring Raptor 3 engines and tower-based booster catches on multiple 2026 flights, underpins the 67.5% market-implied odds for full reusability by the end of 2027. Flight 13 in July delivered the first intact upper-stage splashdown with minimal heat shield damage, successful Starlink V3 deployment, and in-space engine relight, while prior missions validated booster recovery via Mechazilla arms. Elon Musk's August statements targeting an upper-stage tower catch within months and the first ship reflight by early 2027 reflect trader confidence in SpaceX's Falcon 9 reuse playbook scaling to orbital operations. Key near-term catalysts include Flight 14's planned orbital profile and propellant transfer demos, though heat shield durability for rapid turnaround and regulatory approvals remain variables that could shift timelines.