Traders assign an 88% implied probability to “No” on SSI announcing achievement of artificial superintelligence by December 31, 2026, primarily because today’s frontier large language models continue to show incremental gains in reasoning and tool use rather than the recursive self-improvement or robust long-horizon agency required for superintelligence. Recent model releases and benchmark results through mid-2026 have extended capabilities in coding and multimodal tasks but remain well short of the qualitative leap experts associate with ASI. Market consensus reflects the absence of credible announcements from leading labs, persistent technical bottlenecks in scaling, and typical product timelines that place meaningful superintelligence milestones after 2027. Upcoming developer conferences and capability reports could still shift sentiment, yet current evidence supports the strong trader view that December 2026 is too soon.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoSSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31?
SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31?
13% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
13% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Safe Superintelligence Inc. or an official representative of the company announces that it has created a safe superintelligence (SSI) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying statements must unambiguously state that SSI has achieved or created a safe superintelligence. For example, SSI describing a released product or system as a safe superintelligence would qualify. Statements that merely allude to the possibility of a safe superintelligence, indicate progress toward it, suggest that SSI is close to achieving it, or are otherwise ambiguous will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Safe Superintelligence Inc. and its official representatives; informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Safe Superintelligence Inc. or its official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Note: This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying announcement by Safe Superintelligence Inc. or an official representative. Whether or not a safe superintelligence was actually achieved, or whether it is publicly accessible, will not be considered for resolution.Traders assign an 88% implied probability to “No” on SSI announcing achievement of artificial superintelligence by December 31, 2026, primarily because today’s frontier large language models continue to show incremental gains in reasoning and tool use rather than the recursive self-improvement or robust long-horizon agency required for superintelligence. Recent model releases and benchmark results through mid-2026 have extended capabilities in coding and multimodal tasks but remain well short of the qualitative leap experts associate with ASI. Market consensus reflects the absence of credible announcements from leading labs, persistent technical bottlenecks in scaling, and typical product timelines that place meaningful superintelligence milestones after 2027. Upcoming developer conferences and capability reports could still shift sentiment, yet current evidence supports the strong trader view that December 2026 is too soon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Safe Superintelligence Inc. or an official representative of the company announces that it has created a safe superintelligence (SSI) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying statements must unambiguously state that SSI has achieved or created a safe superintelligence. For example, SSI describing a released product or system as a safe superintelligence would qualify. Statements that merely allude to the possibility of a safe superintelligence, indicate progress toward it, suggest that SSI is close to achieving it, or are otherwise ambiguous will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Safe Superintelligence Inc. and its official representatives; informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Safe Superintelligence Inc. or its official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Note: This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying announcement by Safe Superintelligence Inc. or an official representative. Whether or not a safe superintelligence was actually achieved, or whether it is publicly accessible, will not be considered for resolution.
Qualifying statements must unambiguously state that SSI has achieved or created a safe superintelligence. For example, SSI describing a released product or system as a safe superintelligence would qualify. Statements that merely allude to the possibility of a safe superintelligence, indicate progress toward it, suggest that SSI is close to achieving it, or are otherwise ambiguous will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Safe Superintelligence Inc. and its official representatives; informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Safe Superintelligence Inc. or its official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Note: This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying announcement by Safe Superintelligence Inc. or an official representative. Whether or not a safe superintelligence was actually achieved, or whether it is publicly accessible, will not be considered for resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 11, 2026, 4:28 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,304Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 11, 2026, 4:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Safe Superintelligence Inc. or an official representative of the company announces that it has created a safe superintelligence (SSI) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying statements must unambiguously state that SSI has achieved or created a safe superintelligence. For example, SSI describing a released product or system as a safe superintelligence would qualify. Statements that merely allude to the possibility of a safe superintelligence, indicate progress toward it, suggest that SSI is close to achieving it, or are otherwise ambiguous will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Safe Superintelligence Inc. and its official representatives; informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Safe Superintelligence Inc. or its official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Note: This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying announcement by Safe Superintelligence Inc. or an official representative. Whether or not a safe superintelligence was actually achieved, or whether it is publicly accessible, will not be considered for resolution.Traders assign an 88% implied probability to “No” on SSI announcing achievement of artificial superintelligence by December 31, 2026, primarily because today’s frontier large language models continue to show incremental gains in reasoning and tool use rather than the recursive self-improvement or robust long-horizon agency required for superintelligence. Recent model releases and benchmark results through mid-2026 have extended capabilities in coding and multimodal tasks but remain well short of the qualitative leap experts associate with ASI. Market consensus reflects the absence of credible announcements from leading labs, persistent technical bottlenecks in scaling, and typical product timelines that place meaningful superintelligence milestones after 2027. Upcoming developer conferences and capability reports could still shift sentiment, yet current evidence supports the strong trader view that December 2026 is too soon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Safe Superintelligence Inc. or an official representative of the company announces that it has created a safe superintelligence (SSI) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying statements must unambiguously state that SSI has achieved or created a safe superintelligence. For example, SSI describing a released product or system as a safe superintelligence would qualify. Statements that merely allude to the possibility of a safe superintelligence, indicate progress toward it, suggest that SSI is close to achieving it, or are otherwise ambiguous will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Safe Superintelligence Inc. and its official representatives; informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Safe Superintelligence Inc. or its official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Note: This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying announcement by Safe Superintelligence Inc. or an official representative. Whether or not a safe superintelligence was actually achieved, or whether it is publicly accessible, will not be considered for resolution.
Qualifying statements must unambiguously state that SSI has achieved or created a safe superintelligence. For example, SSI describing a released product or system as a safe superintelligence would qualify. Statements that merely allude to the possibility of a safe superintelligence, indicate progress toward it, suggest that SSI is close to achieving it, or are otherwise ambiguous will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Safe Superintelligence Inc. and its official representatives; informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Safe Superintelligence Inc. or its official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Note: This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying announcement by Safe Superintelligence Inc. or an official representative. Whether or not a safe superintelligence was actually achieved, or whether it is publicly accessible, will not be considered for resolution.
Wolumen
$2,304Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 11, 2026, 4:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 88% implied probability to “No” on SSI announcing achievement of artificial superintelligence by December 31, 2026, primarily because today’s frontier large language models continue to show incremental gains in reasoning and tool use rather than the recursive self-improvement or robust long-horizon agency required for superintelligence. Recent model releases and benchmark results through mid-2026 have extended capabilities in coding and multimodal tasks but remain well short of the qualitative leap experts associate with ASI. Market consensus reflects the absence of credible announcements from leading labs, persistent technical bottlenecks in scaling, and typical product timelines that place meaningful superintelligence milestones after 2027. Upcoming developer conferences and capability reports could still shift sentiment, yet current evidence supports the strong trader view that December 2026 is too soon.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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