Incumbent Republican Bill Hagerty won re-election to the Tennessee U.S. Senate seat on November 3, 2026, defeating Democrat Marquita Bradshaw by a final margin of 12.2 points (55.1% to 42.9%) with nearly all votes counted. Traders assigned overwhelming probability to the 10-15 point Republican margin because consistent polling averages showed a 19-22 point lead in a state with a strong Republican partisan lean, reinforced by historical results and Hagerty’s unopposed primary. The race carried a safe Republican rating from forecasters, with limited late developments altering the outlook. Remaining uncertainty centers on any final vote certification adjustments or uncounted ballots, though these are unlikely to shift the outcome outside the dominant bucket.