US policy has consistently opposed mandatory charges for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway protected under UNCLOS principles of free passage. Following the June 2026 US-Iran memorandum establishing a 60-day toll-free window, President Trump briefly floated a 20% cargo reimbursement model in mid-July before shifting to Gulf investment arrangements. Traders assign low implied probability to US collection by December 31, citing legal barriers, sustained administration rejection of Iranian-style fees, and absence of any implemented mechanism. Ongoing regional tensions and shipping risk surcharges by private operators have not altered this stance. No scheduled votes, summits, or policy deadlines in the near term appear positioned to reverse course.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$983,340 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
6%
$983,340 Wol.
December 31
$115,036 Wol.
6%
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.US policy has consistently opposed mandatory charges for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway protected under UNCLOS principles of free passage. Following the June 2026 US-Iran memorandum establishing a 60-day toll-free window, President Trump briefly floated a 20% cargo reimbursement model in mid-July before shifting to Gulf investment arrangements. Traders assign low implied probability to US collection by December 31, citing legal barriers, sustained administration rejection of Iranian-style fees, and absence of any implemented mechanism. Ongoing regional tensions and shipping risk surcharges by private operators have not altered this stance. No scheduled votes, summits, or policy deadlines in the near term appear positioned to reverse course.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
Wolumen
$983,340Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.US policy has consistently opposed mandatory charges for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway protected under UNCLOS principles of free passage. Following the June 2026 US-Iran memorandum establishing a 60-day toll-free window, President Trump briefly floated a 20% cargo reimbursement model in mid-July before shifting to Gulf investment arrangements. Traders assign low implied probability to US collection by December 31, citing legal barriers, sustained administration rejection of Iranian-style fees, and absence of any implemented mechanism. Ongoing regional tensions and shipping risk surcharges by private operators have not altered this stance. No scheduled votes, summits, or policy deadlines in the near term appear positioned to reverse course.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$983,340Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...US policy has consistently opposed mandatory charges for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway protected under UNCLOS principles of free passage. Following the June 2026 US-Iran memorandum establishing a 60-day toll-free window, President Trump briefly floated a 20% cargo reimbursement model in mid-July before shifting to Gulf investment arrangements. Traders assign low implied probability to US collection by December 31, citing legal barriers, sustained administration rejection of Iranian-style fees, and absence of any implemented mechanism. Ongoing regional tensions and shipping risk surcharges by private operators have not altered this stance. No scheduled votes, summits, or policy deadlines in the near term appear positioned to reverse course.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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