Close bilateral security cooperation between the United States and Colombia under President Abelardo de la Espriella has anchored trader consensus against an imminent unilateral U.S. strike on Colombian territory. The right-wing leader’s August 2026 inauguration accelerated joint counter-narcotics efforts, including U.S. drone transfers, intelligence sharing, Plan Patriota 2.0 planning, and Colombia’s entry into the Shield of the Americas coalition. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s early September visit left open the possibility of expanded U.S. military support or joint operations with Colombian consent, while emphasizing legal coordination rather than independent action. Ongoing U.S. strikes have targeted vessels at sea, not land targets inside Colombia, and historical patterns favor partnership over confrontation when priorities align on narco-trafficking. Scheduled diplomatic and operational milestones through year-end could still shift probabilities if tensions arise over decertification or specific targets.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$2,191,705 Wol.
Jan 30, 2026
31 grudnia
16%
$2,191,705 Wol.
31 grudnia
$1,114,490 Wol.
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Close bilateral security cooperation between the United States and Colombia under President Abelardo de la Espriella has anchored trader consensus against an imminent unilateral U.S. strike on Colombian territory. The right-wing leader’s August 2026 inauguration accelerated joint counter-narcotics efforts, including U.S. drone transfers, intelligence sharing, Plan Patriota 2.0 planning, and Colombia’s entry into the Shield of the Americas coalition. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s early September visit left open the possibility of expanded U.S. military support or joint operations with Colombian consent, while emphasizing legal coordination rather than independent action. Ongoing U.S. strikes have targeted vessels at sea, not land targets inside Colombia, and historical patterns favor partnership over confrontation when priorities align on narco-trafficking. Scheduled diplomatic and operational milestones through year-end could still shift probabilities if tensions arise over decertification or specific targets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 4, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,191,705Data zakończenia
Jan 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 4, 2026, 2:46 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Close bilateral security cooperation between the United States and Colombia under President Abelardo de la Espriella has anchored trader consensus against an imminent unilateral U.S. strike on Colombian territory. The right-wing leader’s August 2026 inauguration accelerated joint counter-narcotics efforts, including U.S. drone transfers, intelligence sharing, Plan Patriota 2.0 planning, and Colombia’s entry into the Shield of the Americas coalition. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s early September visit left open the possibility of expanded U.S. military support or joint operations with Colombian consent, while emphasizing legal coordination rather than independent action. Ongoing U.S. strikes have targeted vessels at sea, not land targets inside Colombia, and historical patterns favor partnership over confrontation when priorities align on narco-trafficking. Scheduled diplomatic and operational milestones through year-end could still shift probabilities if tensions arise over decertification or specific targets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Wolumen
$2,191,705Data zakończenia
Jan 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 4, 2026, 2:46 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Close bilateral security cooperation between the United States and Colombia under President Abelardo de la Espriella has anchored trader consensus against an imminent unilateral U.S. strike on Colombian territory. The right-wing leader’s August 2026 inauguration accelerated joint counter-narcotics efforts, including U.S. drone transfers, intelligence sharing, Plan Patriota 2.0 planning, and Colombia’s entry into the Shield of the Americas coalition. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s early September visit left open the possibility of expanded U.S. military support or joint operations with Colombian consent, while emphasizing legal coordination rather than independent action. Ongoing U.S. strikes have targeted vessels at sea, not land targets inside Colombia, and historical patterns favor partnership over confrontation when priorities align on narco-trafficking. Scheduled diplomatic and operational milestones through year-end could still shift probabilities if tensions arise over decertification or specific targets.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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