Recent U.S. inflation data has created a tight balance in trader expectations for the next Federal Reserve move, with July 2026 CPI rising just 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year—slightly cooler than June but still above the 2% target, while core CPI held at 2.5%. The current fed funds rate sits at 3.50-3.75%, and markets are pricing in roughly even odds between a 25-basis-point cut and no change at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Persistent energy-price pressures tied to earlier geopolitical tensions, resilient labor-market readings, and mixed signals on whether inflation will continue moderating have kept probabilities near 50-50. The next CPI release and any fresh employment data before the meeting could shift the implied odds sharply, as could comments from officials on the balance of risks between growth and price stability.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhat will be the next Fed rate change?
What will be the next Fed rate change?
Hike
47% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2028
Hike
47% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2028
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. inflation data has created a tight balance in trader expectations for the next Federal Reserve move, with July 2026 CPI rising just 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year—slightly cooler than June but still above the 2% target, while core CPI held at 2.5%. The current fed funds rate sits at 3.50-3.75%, and markets are pricing in roughly even odds between a 25-basis-point cut and no change at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Persistent energy-price pressures tied to earlier geopolitical tensions, resilient labor-market readings, and mixed signals on whether inflation will continue moderating have kept probabilities near 50-50. The next CPI release and any fresh employment data before the meeting could shift the implied odds sharply, as could comments from officials on the balance of risks between growth and price stability.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,425Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2028Rynek otwarty
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. inflation data has created a tight balance in trader expectations for the next Federal Reserve move, with July 2026 CPI rising just 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year—slightly cooler than June but still above the 2% target, while core CPI held at 2.5%. The current fed funds rate sits at 3.50-3.75%, and markets are pricing in roughly even odds between a 25-basis-point cut and no change at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Persistent energy-price pressures tied to earlier geopolitical tensions, resilient labor-market readings, and mixed signals on whether inflation will continue moderating have kept probabilities near 50-50. The next CPI release and any fresh employment data before the meeting could shift the implied odds sharply, as could comments from officials on the balance of risks between growth and price stability.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$2,425Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2028Rynek otwarty
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. inflation data has created a tight balance in trader expectations for the next Federal Reserve move, with July 2026 CPI rising just 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year—slightly cooler than June but still above the 2% target, while core CPI held at 2.5%. The current fed funds rate sits at 3.50-3.75%, and markets are pricing in roughly even odds between a 25-basis-point cut and no change at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Persistent energy-price pressures tied to earlier geopolitical tensions, resilient labor-market readings, and mixed signals on whether inflation will continue moderating have kept probabilities near 50-50. The next CPI release and any fresh employment data before the meeting could shift the implied odds sharply, as could comments from officials on the balance of risks between growth and price stability.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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