Mexican security forces' intensified operations against cartels have driven trader focus, highlighted by the April 28 arrest of CJNG commander Audias Flores Silva, alias "El Jardinero," found hiding in Nayarit—a potential successor to slain leader Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes, killed in February. US indictments of Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya and nine officials on April 29 for aiding the Sinaloa Cartel underscore bilateral pressure amid extraditions and joint probes. Remaining top fugitives like Sinaloa's Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar, plus CJNG's Ricardo Ruiz Velasco, face elevated risks from ongoing raids and infighting, though no major arrests reported in the past two weeks. Upcoming military actions and potential US designations could shift dynamics before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?
Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?
$82,400 Wol.
Feb 28, 2026
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
56%
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
59%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
61%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
42%
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez
50%
Juan Reyes Mejía González
49%
Juan Pablo Ledezma
49%
$82,400 Wol.
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
$5,709 Wol.
56%
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
$5,813 Wol.
59%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
$825 Wol.
61%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
$4,842 Wol.
42%
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez
$58,605 Wol.
50%
Juan Reyes Mejía González
$0 Wol.
49%
Juan Pablo Ledezma
$658 Wol.
49%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mexican security forces' intensified operations against cartels have driven trader focus, highlighted by the April 28 arrest of CJNG commander Audias Flores Silva, alias "El Jardinero," found hiding in Nayarit—a potential successor to slain leader Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes, killed in February. US indictments of Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya and nine officials on April 29 for aiding the Sinaloa Cartel underscore bilateral pressure amid extraditions and joint probes. Remaining top fugitives like Sinaloa's Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar, plus CJNG's Ricardo Ruiz Velasco, face elevated risks from ongoing raids and infighting, though no major arrests reported in the past two weeks. Upcoming military actions and potential US designations could shift dynamics before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET
Wolumen
$82,400Data zakończenia
Feb 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mexican security forces' intensified operations against cartels have driven trader focus, highlighted by the April 28 arrest of CJNG commander Audias Flores Silva, alias "El Jardinero," found hiding in Nayarit—a potential successor to slain leader Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes, killed in February. US indictments of Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya and nine officials on April 29 for aiding the Sinaloa Cartel underscore bilateral pressure amid extraditions and joint probes. Remaining top fugitives like Sinaloa's Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar, plus CJNG's Ricardo Ruiz Velasco, face elevated risks from ongoing raids and infighting, though no major arrests reported in the past two weeks. Upcoming military actions and potential US designations could shift dynamics before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$82,400Data zakończenia
Feb 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mexican security forces' intensified operations against cartels have driven trader focus, highlighted by the April 28 arrest of CJNG commander Audias Flores Silva, alias "El Jardinero," found hiding in Nayarit—a potential successor to slain leader Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes, killed in February. US indictments of Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya and nine officials on April 29 for aiding the Sinaloa Cartel underscore bilateral pressure amid extraditions and joint probes. Remaining top fugitives like Sinaloa's Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar, plus CJNG's Ricardo Ruiz Velasco, face elevated risks from ongoing raids and infighting, though no major arrests reported in the past two weeks. Upcoming military actions and potential US designations could shift dynamics before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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