Anthropic’s recent Claude releases, including Fable 5, Mythos 5, and Opus 5, have driven the 96.5% market-implied probability by topping multiple independent leaderboards in August 2026 on coding (SWE-bench Verified near 95%), reasoning, and agentic benchmarks. These models demonstrate clear edges in production reliability and complex workflows compared with OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants and Google’s Gemini 3 series. With resolution only two weeks away, traders see little time for competitors to ship surpassing updates. A late surprise release or benchmark reversal from OpenAI or Google remains the main risk that could narrow the gap, though current verified performance sustains the strong consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich company has best AI model end of August?
Which company has best AI model end of August?
Anthropic 96.5%
OpenAI 2.3%
Google <1%
Meta <1%
$1,762,558 Wol.
$1,762,558 Wol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
97%
OpenAI
2%
1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 96.5%
OpenAI 2.3%
Google <1%
Meta <1%
$1,762,558 Wol.
$1,762,558 Wol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$362,308 Wol.
97%
OpenAI
$151,832 Wol.
2%
$137,094 Wol.
1%
Meta
$144,767 Wol.
<1%
Alibaba
$136,072 Wol.
<1%
Z.ai
$146,447 Wol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$146,943 Wol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$221,792 Wol.
<1%
Moonshot
$108,007 Wol.
<1%
Baidu
$15,032 Wol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$11,009 Wol.
<1%
Amazon
$9,778 Wol.
<1%
Bytedance
$88,729 Wol.
<1%
Nvidia
$11,465 Wol.
<1%
Thinky
$14,084 Wol.
<1%
MiniMax
$28,168 Wol.
<1%
Mistral
$4,351 Wol.
<1%
Meituan
$3,803 Wol.
<1%
Tencent
$4,363 Wol.
<1%
StepFun
$4,993 Wol.
<1%
Microsoft
$11,524 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent Claude releases, including Fable 5, Mythos 5, and Opus 5, have driven the 96.5% market-implied probability by topping multiple independent leaderboards in August 2026 on coding (SWE-bench Verified near 95%), reasoning, and agentic benchmarks. These models demonstrate clear edges in production reliability and complex workflows compared with OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants and Google’s Gemini 3 series. With resolution only two weeks away, traders see little time for competitors to ship surpassing updates. A late surprise release or benchmark reversal from OpenAI or Google remains the main risk that could narrow the gap, though current verified performance sustains the strong consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,762,558Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent Claude releases, including Fable 5, Mythos 5, and Opus 5, have driven the 96.5% market-implied probability by topping multiple independent leaderboards in August 2026 on coding (SWE-bench Verified near 95%), reasoning, and agentic benchmarks. These models demonstrate clear edges in production reliability and complex workflows compared with OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants and Google’s Gemini 3 series. With resolution only two weeks away, traders see little time for competitors to ship surpassing updates. A late surprise release or benchmark reversal from OpenAI or Google remains the main risk that could narrow the gap, though current verified performance sustains the strong consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$1,762,558Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent Claude releases, including Fable 5, Mythos 5, and Opus 5, have driven the 96.5% market-implied probability by topping multiple independent leaderboards in August 2026 on coding (SWE-bench Verified near 95%), reasoning, and agentic benchmarks. These models demonstrate clear edges in production reliability and complex workflows compared with OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants and Google’s Gemini 3 series. With resolution only two weeks away, traders see little time for competitors to ship surpassing updates. A late surprise release or benchmark reversal from OpenAI or Google remains the main risk that could narrow the gap, though current verified performance sustains the strong consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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