Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Anthropic at 86.5% implied probability for the best AI model by May 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release dominating key benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified (over 80% for the first time) and Arc-AGI-2 (37.6%), while offering superior token efficiency and lower costs than predecessors. This edges out OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (launched April 23), which trails in coding and agentic tasks per recent Artificial Analysis and Stanford HAI evaluations. Google's 10.5% reflects anticipation of Gemini advancements post-I/O, but Anthropic's four top-5 Arena models create a robust moat. Watch for last-minute releases, as thin leads can shift rapidly in this competitive large language model landscape.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich company has the best AI model end of May?
Which company has the best AI model end of May?
Anthropic 87%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.3%
xAI <1%
$6,225,803 Wol.
$6,225,803 Wol.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
87%
11%
OpenAI
2%
xAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Meta
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 87%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.3%
xAI <1%
$6,225,803 Wol.
$6,225,803 Wol.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
$489,426 Wol.
87%
$369,279 Wol.
11%
OpenAI
$594,071 Wol.
2%
xAI
$436,713 Wol.
<1%
Alibaba
$344,182 Wol.
<1%
ByteDance
$448,647 Wol.
<1%
Moonshot
$427,316 Wol.
<1%
Z.ai
$322,071 Wol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$403,392 Wol.
<1%
Meta
$427,264 Wol.
<1%
Baidu
$461,547 Wol.
<1%
Amazon
$395,105 Wol.
<1%
Mistral
$388,958 Wol.
<1%
Meituan
$311,562 Wol.
<1%
Microsoft
$406,615 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Anthropic at 86.5% implied probability for the best AI model by May 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release dominating key benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified (over 80% for the first time) and Arc-AGI-2 (37.6%), while offering superior token efficiency and lower costs than predecessors. This edges out OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (launched April 23), which trails in coding and agentic tasks per recent Artificial Analysis and Stanford HAI evaluations. Google's 10.5% reflects anticipation of Gemini advancements post-I/O, but Anthropic's four top-5 Arena models create a robust moat. Watch for last-minute releases, as thin leads can shift rapidly in this competitive large language model landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
Wolumen
$6,225,803Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Anthropic at 86.5% implied probability for the best AI model by May 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release dominating key benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified (over 80% for the first time) and Arc-AGI-2 (37.6%), while offering superior token efficiency and lower costs than predecessors. This edges out OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (launched April 23), which trails in coding and agentic tasks per recent Artificial Analysis and Stanford HAI evaluations. Google's 10.5% reflects anticipation of Gemini advancements post-I/O, but Anthropic's four top-5 Arena models create a robust moat. Watch for last-minute releases, as thin leads can shift rapidly in this competitive large language model landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Wolumen
$6,225,803Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Anthropic at 86.5% implied probability for the best AI model by May 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release dominating key benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified (over 80% for the first time) and Arc-AGI-2 (37.6%), while offering superior token efficiency and lower costs than predecessors. This edges out OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (launched April 23), which trails in coding and agentic tasks per recent Artificial Analysis and Stanford HAI evaluations. Google's 10.5% reflects anticipation of Gemini advancements post-I/O, but Anthropic's four top-5 Arena models create a robust moat. Watch for last-minute releases, as thin leads can shift rapidly in this competitive large language model landscape.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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