Trader consensus assigns a 57% chance that no large language model reaches 1550 ELO on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, driven by the tight clustering of frontier systems around 1500-1530 following rapid April and May releases. Anthropic’s 33% share reflects Claude Opus 4.7’s recent sweeps in coding and agentic-reasoning sub-benchmarks, positioning the company as the nearest to sustained threshold gains. Google’s 10.5% accounts for Gemini 3.1 Pro’s multimodal and long-context strengths, while OpenAI and xAI trail at roughly 2% each amid frequent but incremental GPT-5.5 and Grok updates. Safety-testing pacts and converging performance across labs further support the view that crossing 1550 will require more than current iteration cycles.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
None in 2026 57%
Anthropic 33%
Google 11%
xAI 2.4%
$54,463 Wol.
$54,463 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
57%
Anthropic
33%
11%
xAI
2%
OpenAI
2%
Alibaba
1%
Mistral
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
None in 2026 57%
Anthropic 33%
Google 11%
xAI 2.4%
$54,463 Wol.
$54,463 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
$10,095 Wol.
57%
Anthropic
$6,982 Wol.
33%
$7,388 Wol.
11%
xAI
$5,414 Wol.
2%
OpenAI
$7,444 Wol.
2%
Alibaba
$4,750 Wol.
1%
Mistral
$3,688 Wol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$4,795 Wol.
<1%
Z.ai
$3,908 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus assigns a 57% chance that no large language model reaches 1550 ELO on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, driven by the tight clustering of frontier systems around 1500-1530 following rapid April and May releases. Anthropic’s 33% share reflects Claude Opus 4.7’s recent sweeps in coding and agentic-reasoning sub-benchmarks, positioning the company as the nearest to sustained threshold gains. Google’s 10.5% accounts for Gemini 3.1 Pro’s multimodal and long-context strengths, while OpenAI and xAI trail at roughly 2% each amid frequent but incremental GPT-5.5 and Grok updates. Safety-testing pacts and converging performance across labs further support the view that crossing 1550 will require more than current iteration cycles.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Wolumen
$54,463Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus assigns a 57% chance that no large language model reaches 1550 ELO on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, driven by the tight clustering of frontier systems around 1500-1530 following rapid April and May releases. Anthropic’s 33% share reflects Claude Opus 4.7’s recent sweeps in coding and agentic-reasoning sub-benchmarks, positioning the company as the nearest to sustained threshold gains. Google’s 10.5% accounts for Gemini 3.1 Pro’s multimodal and long-context strengths, while OpenAI and xAI trail at roughly 2% each amid frequent but incremental GPT-5.5 and Grok updates. Safety-testing pacts and converging performance across labs further support the view that crossing 1550 will require more than current iteration cycles.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Wolumen
$54,463Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns a 57% chance that no large language model reaches 1550 ELO on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, driven by the tight clustering of frontier systems around 1500-1530 following rapid April and May releases. Anthropic’s 33% share reflects Claude Opus 4.7’s recent sweeps in coding and agentic-reasoning sub-benchmarks, positioning the company as the nearest to sustained threshold gains. Google’s 10.5% accounts for Gemini 3.1 Pro’s multimodal and long-context strengths, while OpenAI and xAI trail at roughly 2% each amid frequent but incremental GPT-5.5 and Grok updates. Safety-testing pacts and converging performance across labs further support the view that crossing 1550 will require more than current iteration cycles.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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