The market-implied odds favoring no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 reflect the timing relative to the official Atlantic hurricane season start on June 1, with National Hurricane Center monitoring showing no organized tropical systems or favorable conditions for rapid development in the coming two weeks. Historical climatology from NOAA indicates only a handful of May formations on record, most remaining weak and offshore, while current sea surface temperatures and steering patterns offer little support for intensification into hurricane strength. Traders are pricing in this low baseline risk, though an atypical early cyclone could still form if wind shear drops sharply and a disturbance organizes quickly over the Gulf or Caribbean.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
$26,085 Wol.
$26,085 Wol.
May 31, 2026
$26,085 Wol.
$26,085 Wol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.The market-implied odds favoring no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 reflect the timing relative to the official Atlantic hurricane season start on June 1, with National Hurricane Center monitoring showing no organized tropical systems or favorable conditions for rapid development in the coming two weeks. Historical climatology from NOAA indicates only a handful of May formations on record, most remaining weak and offshore, while current sea surface temperatures and steering patterns offer little support for intensification into hurricane strength. Traders are pricing in this low baseline risk, though an atypical early cyclone could still form if wind shear drops sharply and a disturbance organizes quickly over the Gulf or Caribbean.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Wolumen
$26,085Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.The market-implied odds favoring no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 reflect the timing relative to the official Atlantic hurricane season start on June 1, with National Hurricane Center monitoring showing no organized tropical systems or favorable conditions for rapid development in the coming two weeks. Historical climatology from NOAA indicates only a handful of May formations on record, most remaining weak and offshore, while current sea surface temperatures and steering patterns offer little support for intensification into hurricane strength. Traders are pricing in this low baseline risk, though an atypical early cyclone could still form if wind shear drops sharply and a disturbance organizes quickly over the Gulf or Caribbean.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Wolumen
$26,085Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The market-implied odds favoring no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 reflect the timing relative to the official Atlantic hurricane season start on June 1, with National Hurricane Center monitoring showing no organized tropical systems or favorable conditions for rapid development in the coming two weeks. Historical climatology from NOAA indicates only a handful of May formations on record, most remaining weak and offshore, while current sea surface temperatures and steering patterns offer little support for intensification into hurricane strength. Traders are pricing in this low baseline risk, though an atypical early cyclone could still form if wind shear drops sharply and a disturbance organizes quickly over the Gulf or Caribbean.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania