Recent Art Basel and UBS data showing 2025 global sales rebounding modestly to $59.6 billion anchors trader skepticism that 2026 volumes will clear $65 billion. Auction houses drove the 4% uptick through stronger high-end consignments and U.S. market share gains, while dealer sentiment has turned cautiously optimistic heading into the new year. Yet broader economic headwinds, including trade tensions and selective collector demand, temper expectations for the double-digit surge required. Upcoming 2026 auction seasons, major single-owner collections, and any shifts in high-net-worth spending patterns will serve as decisive swing factors for whether momentum accelerates enough to flip the closely balanced market.