Mitch McConnell’s February 2025 announcement that he would not seek reelection and that his current term would be his last established the baseline for trader expectations, with his term scheduled to conclude in January 2027. Subsequent public statements from the Kentucky Republican have consistently reaffirmed his intent to complete the remainder of his Senate service despite multiple health episodes, including a June 2026 fall that led to hospitalization, pneumonia, and a three-month absence before his September return. Recent reports of frailty have prompted questions about capacity, yet no statements or procedural steps indicate an early resignation. With the successor election concluded and the transition window now measured in weeks, the combination of explicit term-end commitments and absence of contrary developments underpins the near-certain consensus against departure before January.