Incumbent Democrat Dave Min and Republican challenger Jenny Rae Le Roux advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to face off in California's 47th Congressional District on November 3. The coastal Orange County seat features mixed voter registration—roughly 36% Democratic, 32% Republican, and 25% no party preference—along with suburban dynamics that have kept recent contests competitive despite redistricting favoring Democrats. Forecasters rate the district Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting Min's incumbency and primary performance, yet trader consensus on victory margins remains dispersed across narrow to moderate Democratic edges and a Republican upset. Limited post-primary polling and fundraising advantages for the incumbent have sustained uncertainty, with potential separation likely driven by fall turnout among independents, national midterm conditions, or late campaign developments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoCA-47 Margem de Vitória nas Eleições da Câmara
CA-47 Margem de Vitória nas Eleições da Câmara
Democrata 25-30% 42%
Democrata 30%+ 41%
Democrata 20-25% 41%
Democrata 15-20% 41%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Democrata 30%+
41%
Democrata 25-30%
42%
Democrata 20-25%
41%
Democrata 15-20%
41%
Democrata 10-15%
41%
Democrata 5-10%
41%
Democrata 0-5%
41%
Vitória Republicana
41%
Democrata 25-30% 42%
Democrata 30%+ 41%
Democrata 20-25% 41%
Democrata 15-20% 41%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Democrata 30%+
$0 Vol.
41%
Democrata 25-30%
$0 Vol.
42%
Democrata 20-25%
$0 Vol.
41%
Democrata 15-20%
$0 Vol.
41%
Democrata 10-15%
$0 Vol.
41%
Democrata 5-10%
$0 Vol.
41%
Democrata 0-5%
$0 Vol.
41%
Vitória Republicana
$0 Vol.
41%
The 2026 CA-47 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-47 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Dave Min and Republican challenger Jenny Rae Le Roux advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to face off in California's 47th Congressional District on November 3. The coastal Orange County seat features mixed voter registration—roughly 36% Democratic, 32% Republican, and 25% no party preference—along with suburban dynamics that have kept recent contests competitive despite redistricting favoring Democrats. Forecasters rate the district Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting Min's incumbency and primary performance, yet trader consensus on victory margins remains dispersed across narrow to moderate Democratic edges and a Republican upset. Limited post-primary polling and fundraising advantages for the incumbent have sustained uncertainty, with potential separation likely driven by fall turnout among independents, national midterm conditions, or late campaign developments.
The 2026 CA-47 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-47 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-47 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 2, 2026, 3:40 PM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-47 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-47 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Dave Min and Republican challenger Jenny Rae Le Roux advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to face off in California's 47th Congressional District on November 3. The coastal Orange County seat features mixed voter registration—roughly 36% Democratic, 32% Republican, and 25% no party preference—along with suburban dynamics that have kept recent contests competitive despite redistricting favoring Democrats. Forecasters rate the district Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting Min's incumbency and primary performance, yet trader consensus on victory margins remains dispersed across narrow to moderate Democratic edges and a Republican upset. Limited post-primary polling and fundraising advantages for the incumbent have sustained uncertainty, with potential separation likely driven by fall turnout among independents, national midterm conditions, or late campaign developments.
The 2026 CA-47 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-47 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-47 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Dave Min and Republican challenger Jenny Rae Le Roux advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to face off in California's 47th Congressional District on November 3. The coastal Orange County seat features mixed voter registration—roughly 36% Democratic, 32% Republican, and 25% no party preference—along with suburban dynamics that have kept recent contests competitive despite redistricting favoring Democrats. Forecasters rate the district Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting Min's incumbency and primary performance, yet trader consensus on victory margins remains dispersed across narrow to moderate Democratic edges and a Republican upset. Limited post-primary polling and fundraising advantages for the incumbent have sustained uncertainty, with potential separation likely driven by fall turnout among independents, national midterm conditions, or late campaign developments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
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