**David Crowley (D) and Tom Tiffany (R) are locked in a tight contest for the open Wisconsin governorship on November 3, 2026, following incumbent Tony Evers’s decision not to seek a third term.** Recent polling averages show Crowley ahead by roughly 3–4 points among likely voters, consistent with the market’s even split between the two leading outcomes and the concentration of probability on Crowley’s narrow victory margins (6–12 points). The race remains competitive because Wisconsin’s electorate is closely divided along urban-rural and partisan lines, with strong turnout in Milwaukee County and suburban shifts historically decisive in statewide results. Crowley’s upset primary win over Francesca Hong consolidated moderate and establishment support, while Tiffany secured the Republican nomination with minimal opposition. Both campaigns are emphasizing affordability, property taxes, school funding, and healthcare access, with limited differentiation on some rural issues such as wolf management. Upcoming factors that could widen the margin include final turnout efforts in key battleground counties, any late shifts in independent or suburban voter preferences, and broader economic sentiment. The current distribution of market probabilities reflects traders’ assessment that small changes in participation or messaging could still determine whether the winner prevails by a handful of points or a more comfortable margin.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoCrowley 9-12% 20%
Crowley 6-9% 18%
Crowley 0-3% 18%
Crowley 3-6% 16%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Tiffany 12%+
<1%
Tiffany 9-12%
<1%
Tiffany 6-9%
1%
Tiffany 3-6%
4%
Tiffany 0-3%
6%
Crowley 0-3%
18%
Crowley 3-6%
16%
Crowley 6-9%
18%
Crowley 9-12%
20%
Crowley 12%+
12%
Crowley 9-12% 20%
Crowley 6-9% 18%
Crowley 0-3% 18%
Crowley 3-6% 16%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Tiffany 12%+
$604 Vol.
<1%
Tiffany 9-12%
$503 Vol.
<1%
Tiffany 6-9%
$563 Vol.
1%
Tiffany 3-6%
$558 Vol.
4%
Tiffany 0-3%
$1,359 Vol.
6%
Crowley 0-3%
$954 Vol.
18%
Crowley 3-6%
$721 Vol.
16%
Crowley 6-9%
$841 Vol.
18%
Crowley 9-12%
$1,094 Vol.
20%
Crowley 12%+
$646 Vol.
12%
The 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**David Crowley (D) and Tom Tiffany (R) are locked in a tight contest for the open Wisconsin governorship on November 3, 2026, following incumbent Tony Evers’s decision not to seek a third term.** Recent polling averages show Crowley ahead by roughly 3–4 points among likely voters, consistent with the market’s even split between the two leading outcomes and the concentration of probability on Crowley’s narrow victory margins (6–12 points).
The race remains competitive because Wisconsin’s electorate is closely divided along urban-rural and partisan lines, with strong turnout in Milwaukee County and suburban shifts historically decisive in statewide results. Crowley’s upset primary win over Francesca Hong consolidated moderate and establishment support, while Tiffany secured the Republican nomination with minimal opposition. Both campaigns are emphasizing affordability, property taxes, school funding, and healthcare access, with limited differentiation on some rural issues such as wolf management.
Upcoming factors that could widen the margin include final turnout efforts in key battleground counties, any late shifts in independent or suburban voter preferences, and broader economic sentiment. The current distribution of market probabilities reflects traders’ assessment that small changes in participation or messaging could still determine whether the winner prevails by a handful of points or a more comfortable margin.
The 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 5, 2026, 5:06 PM ET
Volume
$7,844Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 5, 2026, 5:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**David Crowley (D) and Tom Tiffany (R) are locked in a tight contest for the open Wisconsin governorship on November 3, 2026, following incumbent Tony Evers’s decision not to seek a third term.** Recent polling averages show Crowley ahead by roughly 3–4 points among likely voters, consistent with the market’s even split between the two leading outcomes and the concentration of probability on Crowley’s narrow victory margins (6–12 points).
The race remains competitive because Wisconsin’s electorate is closely divided along urban-rural and partisan lines, with strong turnout in Milwaukee County and suburban shifts historically decisive in statewide results. Crowley’s upset primary win over Francesca Hong consolidated moderate and establishment support, while Tiffany secured the Republican nomination with minimal opposition. Both campaigns are emphasizing affordability, property taxes, school funding, and healthcare access, with limited differentiation on some rural issues such as wolf management.
Upcoming factors that could widen the margin include final turnout efforts in key battleground counties, any late shifts in independent or suburban voter preferences, and broader economic sentiment. The current distribution of market probabilities reflects traders’ assessment that small changes in participation or messaging could still determine whether the winner prevails by a handful of points or a more comfortable margin.
The 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,844Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 5, 2026, 5:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**David Crowley (D) and Tom Tiffany (R) are locked in a tight contest for the open Wisconsin governorship on November 3, 2026, following incumbent Tony Evers’s decision not to seek a third term.** Recent polling averages show Crowley ahead by roughly 3–4 points among likely voters, consistent with the market’s even split between the two leading outcomes and the concentration of probability on Crowley’s narrow victory margins (6–12 points). The race remains competitive because Wisconsin’s electorate is closely divided along urban-rural and partisan lines, with strong turnout in Milwaukee County and suburban shifts historically decisive in statewide results. Crowley’s upset primary win over Francesca Hong consolidated moderate and establishment support, while Tiffany secured the Republican nomination with minimal opposition. Both campaigns are emphasizing affordability, property taxes, school funding, and healthcare access, with limited differentiation on some rural issues such as wolf management. Upcoming factors that could widen the margin include final turnout efforts in key battleground counties, any late shifts in independent or suburban voter preferences, and broader economic sentiment. The current distribution of market probabilities reflects traders’ assessment that small changes in participation or messaging could still determine whether the winner prevails by a handful of points or a more comfortable margin.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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