Traders have locked in Israel as the clear winner of Eurovision 2026’s first semi-final, with market-implied odds at 100 percent signaling overwhelming consensus after the May 12 voting round in Vienna. Noam Bettan’s rock ballad “Michelle,” performed in French, Hebrew, and English, delivered strong televote support that propelled the entry ahead of the field despite audible protests in the arena. Historical patterns show Israeli acts often excel in public voting, and this performance aligned with that precedent while competitors like Finland focused on overall contest momentum rather than semi-final placement. An upset could still emerge only if official results reveal a narrow margin or if a post-show recount alters the final tally, though such scenarios appear unlikely given the decisive market positioning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoEurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner
Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner
Israel 100.0%
Greece <1%
Belgium <1%
Croatia <1%
$255,184 Vol.
$255,184 Vol.
12 mai 2026
Israel
100%
Greece
<1%
Belgium
<1%
Croatia
<1%
Finland
<1%
Lithuania
<1%
Moldova
<1%
Poland
<1%
Serbia
<1%
Sweden
<1%
Israel 100.0%
Greece <1%
Belgium <1%
Croatia <1%
$255,184 Vol.
$255,184 Vol.
12 mai 2026
Israel
$20,948 Vol.
100%
Greece
$25,328 Vol.
<1%
Belgium
$7,799 Vol.
<1%
Croatia
$24,125 Vol.
<1%
Finland
$46,041 Vol.
<1%
Lithuania
$13,949 Vol.
<1%
Moldova
$33,742 Vol.
<1%
Poland
$18,074 Vol.
<1%
Serbia
$11,005 Vol.
<1%
Sweden
$14,527 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Traders have locked in Israel as the clear winner of Eurovision 2026’s first semi-final, with market-implied odds at 100 percent signaling overwhelming consensus after the May 12 voting round in Vienna. Noam Bettan’s rock ballad “Michelle,” performed in French, Hebrew, and English, delivered strong televote support that propelled the entry ahead of the field despite audible protests in the arena. Historical patterns show Israeli acts often excel in public voting, and this performance aligned with that precedent while competitors like Finland focused on overall contest momentum rather than semi-final placement. An upset could still emerge only if official results reveal a narrow margin or if a post-show recount alters the final tally, though such scenarios appear unlikely given the decisive market positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Mercado Aberto: May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ET
Volume
$255,184Data de Término
12 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Traders have locked in Israel as the clear winner of Eurovision 2026’s first semi-final, with market-implied odds at 100 percent signaling overwhelming consensus after the May 12 voting round in Vienna. Noam Bettan’s rock ballad “Michelle,” performed in French, Hebrew, and English, delivered strong televote support that propelled the entry ahead of the field despite audible protests in the arena. Historical patterns show Israeli acts often excel in public voting, and this performance aligned with that precedent while competitors like Finland focused on overall contest momentum rather than semi-final placement. An upset could still emerge only if official results reveal a narrow margin or if a post-show recount alters the final tally, though such scenarios appear unlikely given the decisive market positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$255,184Data de Término
12 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have locked in Israel as the clear winner of Eurovision 2026’s first semi-final, with market-implied odds at 100 percent signaling overwhelming consensus after the May 12 voting round in Vienna. Noam Bettan’s rock ballad “Michelle,” performed in French, Hebrew, and English, delivered strong televote support that propelled the entry ahead of the field despite audible protests in the arena. Historical patterns show Israeli acts often excel in public voting, and this performance aligned with that precedent while competitors like Finland focused on overall contest momentum rather than semi-final placement. An upset could still emerge only if official results reveal a narrow margin or if a post-show recount alters the final tally, though such scenarios appear unlikely given the decisive market positioning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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