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Highest temperature in Dallas on July 4?

icon for Highest temperature in Dallas on July 4?

Highest temperature in Dallas on July 4?

jul 3

jul 4

jul 3

jul 4

98-99°F 37%

100-101°F 28%

96-97°F 22%

102-103°F 4%

Polymarket
NOVO

$13,670 Vol.

98-99°F 37%

100-101°F 28%

96-97°F 22%

102-103°F 4%

Polymarket
NOVO

$13,670 Vol.

95°F or below

$1,057 Vol.

2%

96-97°F

$3,477 Vol.

22%

98-99°F

$4,440 Vol.

37%

100-101°F

$630 Vol.

28%

102-103°F

$721 Vol.

4%

104-105°F

$819 Vol.

2%

106-107°F

$623 Vol.

1%

108-109°F

$794 Vol.

<1%

110-111°F

$528 Vol.

<1%

112-113°F

$385 Vol.

<1%

114°F or higher

$195 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a high near 93°F for Dallas on July 4, 2026, supported by increased cloud cover, scattered morning showers, and southerly flow limiting daytime heating. Trader consensus favoring the 98–99°F bin over 100–101°F reflects modest upward revisions in some short-range ensembles alongside historical July climatology near 95°F, while lower bins capture uncertainty from potential convective timing and boundary-layer moisture. Key variables differentiating narrow ranges include afternoon dew points, wind speeds, and any late-day clearing that could allow brief additional warming before resolution at official Dallas Love Field observations.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,670
Data de Término
4 jul 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 2, 2026, 9:02 PM ET

Fonte de resolução

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a high near 93°F for Dallas on July 4, 2026, supported by increased cloud cover, scattered morning showers, and southerly flow limiting daytime heating. Trader consensus favoring the 98–99°F bin over 100–101°F reflects modest upward revisions in some short-range ensembles alongside historical July climatology near 95°F, while lower bins capture uncertainty from potential convective timing and boundary-layer moisture. Key variables differentiating narrow ranges include afternoon dew points, wind speeds, and any late-day clearing that could allow brief additional warming before resolution at official Dallas Love Field observations.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,670
Data de Término
4 jul 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 2, 2026, 9:02 PM ET

Fonte de resolução

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Dallas on July 4?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "98-99°F" at 37%, followed by "100-101°F" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Dallas on July 4?" has generated $13.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Dallas on July 4?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Dallas on July 4?" is "98-99°F" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "100-101°F" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Dallas on July 4?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.