Recent meteorological model consensus and current high-pressure dominance over the Iberian Peninsula position 39°C as the leading outcome for Madrid’s July 5 maximum, with 40°C close behind. Early-July forecasts from agencies show daytime highs climbing to 36–38°C by July 4–5 amid clear skies and light easterly flow, consistent with climatological peaks near 34°C but elevated by recent warming trends. Limited model spread and absence of significant moisture or frontal activity reduce the chance of cooler readings below 38°C or extremes above 41°C. Updated runs closer to the date will refine these probabilities as surface observations and ensemble guidance evolve.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on July 5?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 5?
39°C 57%
38°C 34%
40°C 9%
37°C 1.7%
NOVO
NOVO
5 jul 2026
35°C or below
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
2%
38°C
34%
39°C
57%
40°C
9%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
39°C 57%
38°C 34%
40°C 9%
37°C 1.7%
NOVO
NOVO
5 jul 2026
35°C or below
$323 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$446 Vol.
1%
37°C
$645 Vol.
2%
38°C
$1,291 Vol.
34%
39°C
$3,489 Vol.
57%
40°C
$825 Vol.
9%
41°C
$405 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$373 Vol.
<1%
43°C
$317 Vol.
<1%
44°C
$173 Vol.
<1%
45°C or higher
$259 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological model consensus and current high-pressure dominance over the Iberian Peninsula position 39°C as the leading outcome for Madrid’s July 5 maximum, with 40°C close behind. Early-July forecasts from agencies show daytime highs climbing to 36–38°C by July 4–5 amid clear skies and light easterly flow, consistent with climatological peaks near 34°C but elevated by recent warming trends. Limited model spread and absence of significant moisture or frontal activity reduce the chance of cooler readings below 38°C or extremes above 41°C. Updated runs closer to the date will refine these probabilities as surface observations and ensemble guidance evolve.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$8,545Data de Término
5 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological model consensus and current high-pressure dominance over the Iberian Peninsula position 39°C as the leading outcome for Madrid’s July 5 maximum, with 40°C close behind. Early-July forecasts from agencies show daytime highs climbing to 36–38°C by July 4–5 amid clear skies and light easterly flow, consistent with climatological peaks near 34°C but elevated by recent warming trends. Limited model spread and absence of significant moisture or frontal activity reduce the chance of cooler readings below 38°C or extremes above 41°C. Updated runs closer to the date will refine these probabilities as surface observations and ensemble guidance evolve.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,545Data de Término
5 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent meteorological model consensus and current high-pressure dominance over the Iberian Peninsula position 39°C as the leading outcome for Madrid’s July 5 maximum, with 40°C close behind. Early-July forecasts from agencies show daytime highs climbing to 36–38°C by July 4–5 amid clear skies and light easterly flow, consistent with climatological peaks near 34°C but elevated by recent warming trends. Limited model spread and absence of significant moisture or frontal activity reduce the chance of cooler readings below 38°C or extremes above 41°C. Updated runs closer to the date will refine these probabilities as surface observations and ensemble guidance evolve.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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