Recent labor market data show the U.S. unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent through April 2026, supported by modest nonfarm payroll gains averaging around 75,000 per month amid slower hiring. Traders are focused on the interplay between monetary policy easing, subdued GDP growth near 1.8 percent, and structural shifts including reduced net migration and AI-driven productivity gains that could limit further job creation. Forecasts from institutions such as J.P. Morgan and the Indiana Business Research Center point to a potential rise toward 4.4–4.8 percent later in the year if hiring remains constrained. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 2026 employment report and subsequent FOMC meetings, which will clarify whether current rate expectations align with a stable or softening labor market trajectory.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$388,622 Vol.
10 jan 2026
5,0%
28%
5,5%
14%
6,0%
13%
7,0%
10%
10,0%
4%
$388,622 Vol.
5,0%
$102,277 Vol.
28%
5,5%
$186,661 Vol.
14%
6,0%
$52,180 Vol.
13%
7,0%
$21,510 Vol.
10%
10,0%
$25,993 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent labor market data show the U.S. unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent through April 2026, supported by modest nonfarm payroll gains averaging around 75,000 per month amid slower hiring. Traders are focused on the interplay between monetary policy easing, subdued GDP growth near 1.8 percent, and structural shifts including reduced net migration and AI-driven productivity gains that could limit further job creation. Forecasts from institutions such as J.P. Morgan and the Indiana Business Research Center point to a potential rise toward 4.4–4.8 percent later in the year if hiring remains constrained. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 2026 employment report and subsequent FOMC meetings, which will clarify whether current rate expectations align with a stable or softening labor market trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$388,622Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent labor market data show the U.S. unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent through April 2026, supported by modest nonfarm payroll gains averaging around 75,000 per month amid slower hiring. Traders are focused on the interplay between monetary policy easing, subdued GDP growth near 1.8 percent, and structural shifts including reduced net migration and AI-driven productivity gains that could limit further job creation. Forecasts from institutions such as J.P. Morgan and the Indiana Business Research Center point to a potential rise toward 4.4–4.8 percent later in the year if hiring remains constrained. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 2026 employment report and subsequent FOMC meetings, which will clarify whether current rate expectations align with a stable or softening labor market trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$388,622Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent labor market data show the U.S. unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent through April 2026, supported by modest nonfarm payroll gains averaging around 75,000 per month amid slower hiring. Traders are focused on the interplay between monetary policy easing, subdued GDP growth near 1.8 percent, and structural shifts including reduced net migration and AI-driven productivity gains that could limit further job creation. Forecasts from institutions such as J.P. Morgan and the Indiana Business Research Center point to a potential rise toward 4.4–4.8 percent later in the year if hiring remains constrained. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 2026 employment report and subsequent FOMC meetings, which will clarify whether current rate expectations align with a stable or softening labor market trajectory.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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