Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to below-average July U.S. tornado totals (<100 or 100–129) amid an ongoing lull in severe weather during June 2026, driven by suppressed convective available potential energy (CAPE) and reduced wind shear from a strengthening El Niño pattern that favors a retracted jet stream and drier mid-level air across the Plains and Midwest. July climatologically shifts peak activity northward into the northern Plains and upper Midwest, where typical monthly counts range 100–150 based on 1991–2020 baselines, but current model consensus points to limited Gulf moisture transport and fewer organized outbreaks compared with early-2026 spring activity. Differentiating lower versus higher bins hinges on whether late-June pattern persistence or an unexpected surge in instability allows more frequent supercell formation; upcoming Storm Prediction Center outlooks and NOAA seasonal updates will refine these thresholds before month-end resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos Tornados nos EUA em julho?
Quantos Tornados nos EUA em julho?
<100 38%
100–129 38%
310+ 27%
160–189 25%
NOVO
NOVO
1 ago 2026
<100
38%
100–129
38%
130–159
25%
160–189
25%
190–219
25%
220–249
21%
250–279
21%
280–310
26%
310+
27%
<100 38%
100–129 38%
310+ 27%
160–189 25%
NOVO
NOVO
1 ago 2026
<100
$30 Vol.
38%
100–129
$44 Vol.
38%
130–159
$78 Vol.
25%
160–189
$40 Vol.
25%
190–219
$41 Vol.
25%
220–249
$33 Vol.
21%
250–279
$53 Vol.
21%
280–310
$131 Vol.
26%
310+
$40 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to below-average July U.S. tornado totals (<100 or 100–129) amid an ongoing lull in severe weather during June 2026, driven by suppressed convective available potential energy (CAPE) and reduced wind shear from a strengthening El Niño pattern that favors a retracted jet stream and drier mid-level air across the Plains and Midwest. July climatologically shifts peak activity northward into the northern Plains and upper Midwest, where typical monthly counts range 100–150 based on 1991–2020 baselines, but current model consensus points to limited Gulf moisture transport and fewer organized outbreaks compared with early-2026 spring activity. Differentiating lower versus higher bins hinges on whether late-June pattern persistence or an unexpected surge in instability allows more frequent supercell formation; upcoming Storm Prediction Center outlooks and NOAA seasonal updates will refine these thresholds before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ET
Volume
$489Data de Término
1 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to below-average July U.S. tornado totals (<100 or 100–129) amid an ongoing lull in severe weather during June 2026, driven by suppressed convective available potential energy (CAPE) and reduced wind shear from a strengthening El Niño pattern that favors a retracted jet stream and drier mid-level air across the Plains and Midwest. July climatologically shifts peak activity northward into the northern Plains and upper Midwest, where typical monthly counts range 100–150 based on 1991–2020 baselines, but current model consensus points to limited Gulf moisture transport and fewer organized outbreaks compared with early-2026 spring activity. Differentiating lower versus higher bins hinges on whether late-June pattern persistence or an unexpected surge in instability allows more frequent supercell formation; upcoming Storm Prediction Center outlooks and NOAA seasonal updates will refine these thresholds before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$489Data de Término
1 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to below-average July U.S. tornado totals (<100 or 100–129) amid an ongoing lull in severe weather during June 2026, driven by suppressed convective available potential energy (CAPE) and reduced wind shear from a strengthening El Niño pattern that favors a retracted jet stream and drier mid-level air across the Plains and Midwest. July climatologically shifts peak activity northward into the northern Plains and upper Midwest, where typical monthly counts range 100–150 based on 1991–2020 baselines, but current model consensus points to limited Gulf moisture transport and fewer organized outbreaks compared with early-2026 spring activity. Differentiating lower versus higher bins hinges on whether late-June pattern persistence or an unexpected surge in instability allows more frequent supercell formation; upcoming Storm Prediction Center outlooks and NOAA seasonal updates will refine these thresholds before month-end resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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