Preliminary reports from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center indicate over 570 tornadoes across the contiguous U.S. through early May 2026, driven by multiple outbreaks in April—including significant events on April 17 in the Upper Midwest and April 25-26 across the Plains—placing the season 30-50% ahead of the 1991-2020 average pace for this date. This front-loaded activity, with January-March counts 80% above normal, has propelled market-implied probabilities toward above-average annual totals, with traders assigning 62% odds to 1250+ tornadoes reflecting expectations of sustained severe weather potential amid neutral ENSO conditions transitioning to likely El Niño later in the year, which historically correlates with fewer tornadoes. However, preliminary counts typically revise downward 10-20% upon final verification, and peak May-June patterns remain uncertain; watch SPC updates and model ensembles for shifts in convective outlooks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos Tornados nos EUA em 2026?
Quantos Tornados nos EUA em 2026?
1250+ 63%
1150–1199 16.9%
1200–1249 4.0%
1050–1099 2.5%
$71,678 Vol.
$71,678 Vol.
10 jan 2027
<950
<1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
1%
1050–1099
17%
1100–1149
2%
1150–1199
23%
1200–1249
27%
1250+
74%
1250+ 63%
1150–1199 16.9%
1200–1249 4.0%
1050–1099 2.5%
$71,678 Vol.
$71,678 Vol.
10 jan 2027
<950
$22,411 Vol.
<1%
950–999
$2,749 Vol.
<1%
1000–1049
$2,424 Vol.
1%
1050–1099
$7,841 Vol.
17%
1100–1149
$2,005 Vol.
2%
1150–1199
$2,452 Vol.
23%
1200–1249
$15,173 Vol.
27%
1250+
$16,622 Vol.
74%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Preliminary reports from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center indicate over 570 tornadoes across the contiguous U.S. through early May 2026, driven by multiple outbreaks in April—including significant events on April 17 in the Upper Midwest and April 25-26 across the Plains—placing the season 30-50% ahead of the 1991-2020 average pace for this date. This front-loaded activity, with January-March counts 80% above normal, has propelled market-implied probabilities toward above-average annual totals, with traders assigning 62% odds to 1250+ tornadoes reflecting expectations of sustained severe weather potential amid neutral ENSO conditions transitioning to likely El Niño later in the year, which historically correlates with fewer tornadoes. However, preliminary counts typically revise downward 10-20% upon final verification, and peak May-June patterns remain uncertain; watch SPC updates and model ensembles for shifts in convective outlooks.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Volume
$71,678Data de Término
10 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Preliminary reports from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center indicate over 570 tornadoes across the contiguous U.S. through early May 2026, driven by multiple outbreaks in April—including significant events on April 17 in the Upper Midwest and April 25-26 across the Plains—placing the season 30-50% ahead of the 1991-2020 average pace for this date. This front-loaded activity, with January-March counts 80% above normal, has propelled market-implied probabilities toward above-average annual totals, with traders assigning 62% odds to 1250+ tornadoes reflecting expectations of sustained severe weather potential amid neutral ENSO conditions transitioning to likely El Niño later in the year, which historically correlates with fewer tornadoes. However, preliminary counts typically revise downward 10-20% upon final verification, and peak May-June patterns remain uncertain; watch SPC updates and model ensembles for shifts in convective outlooks.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$71,678Data de Término
10 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary reports from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center indicate over 570 tornadoes across the contiguous U.S. through early May 2026, driven by multiple outbreaks in April—including significant events on April 17 in the Upper Midwest and April 25-26 across the Plains—placing the season 30-50% ahead of the 1991-2020 average pace for this date. This front-loaded activity, with January-March counts 80% above normal, has propelled market-implied probabilities toward above-average annual totals, with traders assigning 62% odds to 1250+ tornadoes reflecting expectations of sustained severe weather potential amid neutral ENSO conditions transitioning to likely El Niño later in the year, which historically correlates with fewer tornadoes. However, preliminary counts typically revise downward 10-20% upon final verification, and peak May-June patterns remain uncertain; watch SPC updates and model ensembles for shifts in convective outlooks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions