The developing El Niño, officially declared by NOAA in mid-June 2026 with Niño-3.4 anomalies already at +0.7°C and strengthening, provides the main near-term boost to global temperatures, overlaying the multi-decadal warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. Recent model ensembles and WMO outlooks indicate the 2026 annual mean will likely fall between 1.3–1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, while monthly values such as June typically run 0.2–0.4°C lower than the annual figure absent strong El Niño amplification. Current trader consensus at 61.5% for 1.15–1.19°C therefore reflects the lagged oceanic warming signal, neutral-to-weak El Niño onset timing, and absence of offsetting La Niña cooling observed in 2025. Updated seasonal forecasts and June observational data releases from Copernicus and NOAA will be the next key inputs for refining these implied probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 61%
1.10–1.14ºC 22%
1.20–1.24ºC 11%
<1.10ºC 3.5%
NOVO
NOVO
30 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
4%
1.10–1.14ºC
22%
1.15–1.19ºC
61%
1.20–1.24ºC
11%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.15–1.19ºC 61%
1.10–1.14ºC 22%
1.20–1.24ºC 11%
<1.10ºC 3.5%
NOVO
NOVO
30 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
$325 Vol.
4%
1.10–1.14ºC
$4,727 Vol.
22%
1.15–1.19ºC
$73 Vol.
61%
1.20–1.24ºC
$1,583 Vol.
11%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,263 Vol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$842 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The developing El Niño, officially declared by NOAA in mid-June 2026 with Niño-3.4 anomalies already at +0.7°C and strengthening, provides the main near-term boost to global temperatures, overlaying the multi-decadal warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. Recent model ensembles and WMO outlooks indicate the 2026 annual mean will likely fall between 1.3–1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, while monthly values such as June typically run 0.2–0.4°C lower than the annual figure absent strong El Niño amplification. Current trader consensus at 61.5% for 1.15–1.19°C therefore reflects the lagged oceanic warming signal, neutral-to-weak El Niño onset timing, and absence of offsetting La Niña cooling observed in 2025. Updated seasonal forecasts and June observational data releases from Copernicus and NOAA will be the next key inputs for refining these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado Aberto: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$8,813Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The developing El Niño, officially declared by NOAA in mid-June 2026 with Niño-3.4 anomalies already at +0.7°C and strengthening, provides the main near-term boost to global temperatures, overlaying the multi-decadal warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. Recent model ensembles and WMO outlooks indicate the 2026 annual mean will likely fall between 1.3–1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, while monthly values such as June typically run 0.2–0.4°C lower than the annual figure absent strong El Niño amplification. Current trader consensus at 61.5% for 1.15–1.19°C therefore reflects the lagged oceanic warming signal, neutral-to-weak El Niño onset timing, and absence of offsetting La Niña cooling observed in 2025. Updated seasonal forecasts and June observational data releases from Copernicus and NOAA will be the next key inputs for refining these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$8,813Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The developing El Niño, officially declared by NOAA in mid-June 2026 with Niño-3.4 anomalies already at +0.7°C and strengthening, provides the main near-term boost to global temperatures, overlaying the multi-decadal warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. Recent model ensembles and WMO outlooks indicate the 2026 annual mean will likely fall between 1.3–1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, while monthly values such as June typically run 0.2–0.4°C lower than the annual figure absent strong El Niño amplification. Current trader consensus at 61.5% for 1.15–1.19°C therefore reflects the lagged oceanic warming signal, neutral-to-weak El Niño onset timing, and absence of offsetting La Niña cooling observed in 2025. Updated seasonal forecasts and June observational data releases from Copernicus and NOAA will be the next key inputs for refining these implied probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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