Global temperature anomaly forecasts for July 2026 remain tightly clustered near 1.1–1.24 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, reflecting substantial uncertainty in seasonal model runs. The primary near-term driver is the expected ENSO state through northern summer, with La Niña conditions favoring the lower bins around 1.10–1.14 °C while neutral or weak El Niño phases support the 1.20–1.24 °C range. Additional variables include the strength of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Arctic sea-ice extent entering July, and aerosol forcing from recent volcanic or wildfire activity. Official agencies such as NOAA and the UK Met Office will release updated July outlooks and early-month temperature data that traders are monitoring closely, as these releases directly inform resolution of the 0.05 °C bins.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoJulho de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
Julho de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
1,10–1,14ºC 48%
1,20–1,24ºC 45%
1,15–1,19ºC 43%
>1,29ºC 41%
NOVO
NOVO
1 ago 2026
<1,10ºC
40%
1,10–1,14ºC
48%
1,15–1,19ºC
43%
1,20–1,24ºC
45%
1,25–1,29°C
39%
>1,29ºC
41%
1,10–1,14ºC 48%
1,20–1,24ºC 45%
1,15–1,19ºC 43%
>1,29ºC 41%
NOVO
NOVO
1 ago 2026
<1,10ºC
$83 Vol.
40%
1,10–1,14ºC
$63 Vol.
48%
1,15–1,19ºC
$47 Vol.
43%
1,20–1,24ºC
$45 Vol.
45%
1,25–1,29°C
$84 Vol.
39%
>1,29ºC
$54 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Global temperature anomaly forecasts for July 2026 remain tightly clustered near 1.1–1.24 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, reflecting substantial uncertainty in seasonal model runs. The primary near-term driver is the expected ENSO state through northern summer, with La Niña conditions favoring the lower bins around 1.10–1.14 °C while neutral or weak El Niño phases support the 1.20–1.24 °C range. Additional variables include the strength of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Arctic sea-ice extent entering July, and aerosol forcing from recent volcanic or wildfire activity. Official agencies such as NOAA and the UK Met Office will release updated July outlooks and early-month temperature data that traders are monitoring closely, as these releases directly inform resolution of the 0.05 °C bins.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$377Data de Término
1 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Global temperature anomaly forecasts for July 2026 remain tightly clustered near 1.1–1.24 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, reflecting substantial uncertainty in seasonal model runs. The primary near-term driver is the expected ENSO state through northern summer, with La Niña conditions favoring the lower bins around 1.10–1.14 °C while neutral or weak El Niño phases support the 1.20–1.24 °C range. Additional variables include the strength of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Arctic sea-ice extent entering July, and aerosol forcing from recent volcanic or wildfire activity. Official agencies such as NOAA and the UK Met Office will release updated July outlooks and early-month temperature data that traders are monitoring closely, as these releases directly inform resolution of the 0.05 °C bins.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$377Data de Término
1 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Global temperature anomaly forecasts for July 2026 remain tightly clustered near 1.1–1.24 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, reflecting substantial uncertainty in seasonal model runs. The primary near-term driver is the expected ENSO state through northern summer, with La Niña conditions favoring the lower bins around 1.10–1.14 °C while neutral or weak El Niño phases support the 1.20–1.24 °C range. Additional variables include the strength of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Arctic sea-ice extent entering July, and aerosol forcing from recent volcanic or wildfire activity. Official agencies such as NOAA and the UK Met Office will release updated July outlooks and early-month temperature data that traders are monitoring closely, as these releases directly inform resolution of the 0.05 °C bins.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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