Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming scientific evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake is physically impossible, as no known fault is long enough—such an event would require a rupture spanning most of Earth's circumference on the moment magnitude scale. The largest recorded quake remains the 9.5 Valdivia event in 1960 Chile, with global seismic activity since then, including 2026's modest events below magnitude 7.0, showing no signs of unprecedented mega-ruptures along subduction zones or other plate boundaries. While the scale is theoretically open-ended, fault mechanics and historical patterns cap realistic maxima around 9.5–9.6; only an extraordinarily synchronized global fault failure could challenge this before 2027, a scenario USGS deems infeasible amid routine monitoring.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado10,0 ou acima do terremoto antes de 2027?
10,0 ou acima do terremoto antes de 2027?
Sim
$602,242 Vol.
$602,242 Vol.
Sim
$602,242 Vol.
$602,242 Vol.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming scientific evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake is physically impossible, as no known fault is long enough—such an event would require a rupture spanning most of Earth's circumference on the moment magnitude scale. The largest recorded quake remains the 9.5 Valdivia event in 1960 Chile, with global seismic activity since then, including 2026's modest events below magnitude 7.0, showing no signs of unprecedented mega-ruptures along subduction zones or other plate boundaries. While the scale is theoretically open-ended, fault mechanics and historical patterns cap realistic maxima around 9.5–9.6; only an extraordinarily synchronized global fault failure could challenge this before 2027, a scenario USGS deems infeasible amid routine monitoring.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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