Two confirmed magnitude 7+ events—a 7.4 quake on August 10 in Colombia’s Chocó region and a 7.7 on August 14 offshore East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia—have already occurred in the USGS-tracked window, aligning with elevated recent activity along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones. Historical global rates average roughly 0.3–0.4 events of 6.5+ per week, yet clustering in tectonically active areas raises the likelihood of additional shocks before August 16 closes. Market-implied odds heavily favor three total events, reflecting trader assessment of continued aftershock potential and normal variability in seismic catalogs rather than any single forecast model. No major new USGS alerts have shifted consensus in the final 24–48 hours.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos terramotos de 6,5 ou mais de 10 de agosto a 16 de agosto?
Quantos terramotos de 6,5 ou mais de 10 de agosto a 16 de agosto?
3 74.5%
4 21.1%
>5 3.1%
5 1.8%
$33,918 Vol.
$33,918 Vol.
10 ago 2026
0
<1%
1
<1%
2
1%
3
75%
4
21%
5
2%
>5
3%
3 74.5%
4 21.1%
>5 3.1%
5 1.8%
$33,918 Vol.
$33,918 Vol.
10 ago 2026
0
$11,896 Vol.
<1%
1
$6,764 Vol.
<1%
2
$6,471 Vol.
1%
3
$4,152 Vol.
75%
4
$985 Vol.
21%
5
$925 Vol.
2%
>5
$2,725 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Two confirmed magnitude 7+ events—a 7.4 quake on August 10 in Colombia’s Chocó region and a 7.7 on August 14 offshore East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia—have already occurred in the USGS-tracked window, aligning with elevated recent activity along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones. Historical global rates average roughly 0.3–0.4 events of 6.5+ per week, yet clustering in tectonically active areas raises the likelihood of additional shocks before August 16 closes. Market-implied odds heavily favor three total events, reflecting trader assessment of continued aftershock potential and normal variability in seismic catalogs rather than any single forecast model. No major new USGS alerts have shifted consensus in the final 24–48 hours.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ET
Volume
$33,918Data de Término
17 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Two confirmed magnitude 7+ events—a 7.4 quake on August 10 in Colombia’s Chocó region and a 7.7 on August 14 offshore East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia—have already occurred in the USGS-tracked window, aligning with elevated recent activity along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones. Historical global rates average roughly 0.3–0.4 events of 6.5+ per week, yet clustering in tectonically active areas raises the likelihood of additional shocks before August 16 closes. Market-implied odds heavily favor three total events, reflecting trader assessment of continued aftershock potential and normal variability in seismic catalogs rather than any single forecast model. No major new USGS alerts have shifted consensus in the final 24–48 hours.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$33,918Data de Término
17 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Two confirmed magnitude 7+ events—a 7.4 quake on August 10 in Colombia’s Chocó region and a 7.7 on August 14 offshore East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia—have already occurred in the USGS-tracked window, aligning with elevated recent activity along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones. Historical global rates average roughly 0.3–0.4 events of 6.5+ per week, yet clustering in tectonically active areas raises the likelihood of additional shocks before August 16 closes. Market-implied odds heavily favor three total events, reflecting trader assessment of continued aftershock potential and normal variability in seismic catalogs rather than any single forecast model. No major new USGS alerts have shifted consensus in the final 24–48 hours.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
Haverá exatamente 0 terremotos de magnitude 6,5 ou superior no mundo todo de 17 de agosto a 23 de agosto?
42%
Sim
Haverá mais de 13 terremotos de magnitude 5,5 ou superior em todo o mundo de 10 a 16 de agosto?
63%
Sim
Haverá 6 ou menos terremotos de magnitude 5,5 ou superior em todo o mundo de 17 a 23 de agosto?
23%
Sim
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