NOAA’s August 2026 update maintains a below-normal Atlantic season forecast, citing a strengthening El Niño that is expected to sustain elevated wind shear across the main development region and limit intensification. Only two named storms have formed so far, with zero hurricanes and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy index at just 3% of the long-term median. Official outlooks now project 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full June–November period, while Colorado State University assigns only a 16% probability of at least one major hurricane landfall along the continental U.S. coast. These conditions, combined with the season’s remaining weeks before the November 30 close, underpin traders’ strong preference for “No” at 83.5% implied probability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAlgum furacão de categoria 4 chegará aos EUA antes de 2027?
Algum furacão de categoria 4 chegará aos EUA antes de 2027?
Sim
16% chance
$340,142 Vol.
$340,142 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
16% chance
$340,142 Vol.
$340,142 Vol.
31 dez 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s August 2026 update maintains a below-normal Atlantic season forecast, citing a strengthening El Niño that is expected to sustain elevated wind shear across the main development region and limit intensification. Only two named storms have formed so far, with zero hurricanes and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy index at just 3% of the long-term median. Official outlooks now project 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full June–November period, while Colorado State University assigns only a 16% probability of at least one major hurricane landfall along the continental U.S. coast. These conditions, combined with the season’s remaining weeks before the November 30 close, underpin traders’ strong preference for “No” at 83.5% implied probability.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$340,142Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s August 2026 update maintains a below-normal Atlantic season forecast, citing a strengthening El Niño that is expected to sustain elevated wind shear across the main development region and limit intensification. Only two named storms have formed so far, with zero hurricanes and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy index at just 3% of the long-term median. Official outlooks now project 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full June–November period, while Colorado State University assigns only a 16% probability of at least one major hurricane landfall along the continental U.S. coast. These conditions, combined with the season’s remaining weeks before the November 30 close, underpin traders’ strong preference for “No” at 83.5% implied probability.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$340,142Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s August 2026 update maintains a below-normal Atlantic season forecast, citing a strengthening El Niño that is expected to sustain elevated wind shear across the main development region and limit intensification. Only two named storms have formed so far, with zero hurricanes and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy index at just 3% of the long-term median. Official outlooks now project 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full June–November period, while Colorado State University assigns only a 16% probability of at least one major hurricane landfall along the continental U.S. coast. These conditions, combined with the season’s remaining weeks before the November 30 close, underpin traders’ strong preference for “No” at 83.5% implied probability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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