Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at a 72.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any qualifying event through mid-May per authoritative sources: no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall (National Hurricane Center records), no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake (U.S. Geological Survey data), no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption (Global Volcanism Program), and no 10-kiloton+ meteor strike (NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies). These phenomena remain historically rare—U.S. Category 5 landfalls average less than once per decade, M8.5+ quakes occur every 5–10 years globally—bolstered by recent NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts of below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid neutral-to-weak El Niño conditions curbing intensification risks. Monitor NHC seasonal updates from June 1 and ongoing USGS seismic/volcanic feeds for potential shifts ahead of year-end resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoDesastre natural em 2026?
Desastre natural em 2026?
Sim
$218,211 Vol.
$218,211 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$218,211 Vol.
$218,211 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at a 72.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any qualifying event through mid-May per authoritative sources: no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall (National Hurricane Center records), no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake (U.S. Geological Survey data), no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption (Global Volcanism Program), and no 10-kiloton+ meteor strike (NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies). These phenomena remain historically rare—U.S. Category 5 landfalls average less than once per decade, M8.5+ quakes occur every 5–10 years globally—bolstered by recent NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts of below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid neutral-to-weak El Niño conditions curbing intensification risks. Monitor NHC seasonal updates from June 1 and ongoing USGS seismic/volcanic feeds for potential shifts ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Mercado Aberto: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$218,211Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at a 72.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any qualifying event through mid-May per authoritative sources: no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall (National Hurricane Center records), no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake (U.S. Geological Survey data), no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption (Global Volcanism Program), and no 10-kiloton+ meteor strike (NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies). These phenomena remain historically rare—U.S. Category 5 landfalls average less than once per decade, M8.5+ quakes occur every 5–10 years globally—bolstered by recent NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts of below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid neutral-to-weak El Niño conditions curbing intensification risks. Monitor NHC seasonal updates from June 1 and ongoing USGS seismic/volcanic feeds for potential shifts ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$218,211Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at a 72.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any qualifying event through mid-May per authoritative sources: no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall (National Hurricane Center records), no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake (U.S. Geological Survey data), no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption (Global Volcanism Program), and no 10-kiloton+ meteor strike (NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies). These phenomena remain historically rare—U.S. Category 5 landfalls average less than once per decade, M8.5+ quakes occur every 5–10 years globally—bolstered by recent NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts of below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid neutral-to-weak El Niño conditions curbing intensification risks. Monitor NHC seasonal updates from June 1 and ongoing USGS seismic/volcanic feeds for potential shifts ahead of year-end resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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