Ongoing NASA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no large asteroids on trajectories capable of delivering a 10-kiloton or greater impact through the remainder of 2026, supporting the market's strong "No" consensus. Advances in ground-based telescopes, radar systems, and orbital modeling have cataloged tens of thousands of objects, allowing precise trajectory refinements that rule out major strikes. While small fireballs and house-sized asteroids have been tracked recently, none approach the energy threshold, and historical data confirm such events remain rare. Upcoming surveys and continued planetary defense coordination further reduce uncertainty, reinforcing trader confidence that no qualifying meteor strike will occur this year.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoGrande impacto de meteoro (10kt+) em 2026?
Grande impacto de meteoro (10kt+) em 2026?
Sim
$153,442 Vol.
$153,442 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$153,442 Vol.
$153,442 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing NASA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no large asteroids on trajectories capable of delivering a 10-kiloton or greater impact through the remainder of 2026, supporting the market's strong "No" consensus. Advances in ground-based telescopes, radar systems, and orbital modeling have cataloged tens of thousands of objects, allowing precise trajectory refinements that rule out major strikes. While small fireballs and house-sized asteroids have been tracked recently, none approach the energy threshold, and historical data confirm such events remain rare. Upcoming surveys and continued planetary defense coordination further reduce uncertainty, reinforcing trader confidence that no qualifying meteor strike will occur this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$153,442Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing NASA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no large asteroids on trajectories capable of delivering a 10-kiloton or greater impact through the remainder of 2026, supporting the market's strong "No" consensus. Advances in ground-based telescopes, radar systems, and orbital modeling have cataloged tens of thousands of objects, allowing precise trajectory refinements that rule out major strikes. While small fireballs and house-sized asteroids have been tracked recently, none approach the energy threshold, and historical data confirm such events remain rare. Upcoming surveys and continued planetary defense coordination further reduce uncertainty, reinforcing trader confidence that no qualifying meteor strike will occur this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$153,442Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing NASA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no large asteroids on trajectories capable of delivering a 10-kiloton or greater impact through the remainder of 2026, supporting the market's strong "No" consensus. Advances in ground-based telescopes, radar systems, and orbital modeling have cataloged tens of thousands of objects, allowing precise trajectory refinements that rule out major strikes. While small fireballs and house-sized asteroids have been tracked recently, none approach the energy threshold, and historical data confirm such events remain rare. Upcoming surveys and continued planetary defense coordination further reduce uncertainty, reinforcing trader confidence that no qualifying meteor strike will occur this year.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions