NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, shows zero known near-Earth objects (NEOs) with any meaningful probability of impacting Earth in 2026 at 1 megaton or greater energy—equivalent to a ~25-meter stony bolide airburst. This drives trader consensus to a 96.9% implied probability for "No," aligning with historical rarity: events like Tunguska (1908, ~10 megatons) occur roughly once per century, while detection networks like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS now spot most potential threats. A first-quarter 2026 surge in smaller fireballs (all under 0.03 megatons) raised no alarms for larger impacts. Realistic shifts could stem from late discovery of an undetected small NEO on trajectory, though baseline odds remain below 5%; watch CNEOS fireball reports and NEO updates through December.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQueda de meteoro de 1 megatonelada em 2026?
Queda de meteoro de 1 megatonelada em 2026?
Sim
$106,001 Vol.
$106,001 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$106,001 Vol.
$106,001 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, shows zero known near-Earth objects (NEOs) with any meaningful probability of impacting Earth in 2026 at 1 megaton or greater energy—equivalent to a ~25-meter stony bolide airburst. This drives trader consensus to a 96.9% implied probability for "No," aligning with historical rarity: events like Tunguska (1908, ~10 megatons) occur roughly once per century, while detection networks like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS now spot most potential threats. A first-quarter 2026 surge in smaller fireballs (all under 0.03 megatons) raised no alarms for larger impacts. Realistic shifts could stem from late discovery of an undetected small NEO on trajectory, though baseline odds remain below 5%; watch CNEOS fireball reports and NEO updates through December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$106,001Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, shows zero known near-Earth objects (NEOs) with any meaningful probability of impacting Earth in 2026 at 1 megaton or greater energy—equivalent to a ~25-meter stony bolide airburst. This drives trader consensus to a 96.9% implied probability for "No," aligning with historical rarity: events like Tunguska (1908, ~10 megatons) occur roughly once per century, while detection networks like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS now spot most potential threats. A first-quarter 2026 surge in smaller fireballs (all under 0.03 megatons) raised no alarms for larger impacts. Realistic shifts could stem from late discovery of an undetected small NEO on trajectory, though baseline odds remain below 5%; watch CNEOS fireball reports and NEO updates through December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$106,001Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, shows zero known near-Earth objects (NEOs) with any meaningful probability of impacting Earth in 2026 at 1 megaton or greater energy—equivalent to a ~25-meter stony bolide airburst. This drives trader consensus to a 96.9% implied probability for "No," aligning with historical rarity: events like Tunguska (1908, ~10 megatons) occur roughly once per century, while detection networks like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS now spot most potential threats. A first-quarter 2026 surge in smaller fireballs (all under 0.03 megatons) raised no alarms for larger impacts. Realistic shifts could stem from late discovery of an undetected small NEO on trajectory, though baseline odds remain below 5%; watch CNEOS fireball reports and NEO updates through December.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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