USGS data indicates no magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes worldwide since the M7.4 event 100 km ENE of Miyako, Japan, on April 20, 2026—now 25 days ago—with the prior M7.4 striking 129 km ESE of Bitung, Indonesia, on April 1. Globally, the U.S. Geological Survey records an average of 16-20 such events annually, roughly one every 18-23 days, driven by tectonic stress accumulation along subduction zones and faults in seismically active regions like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Short-term prediction remains impossible due to chaotic rupture dynamics, so market-implied odds reflect statistical baselines adjusted for elapsed time without aftershocks escalating to M7+. Traders should monitor USGS real-time feeds for emerging clusters, with resolution hinging on official moment magnitude confirmations before the market close.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoOutro terremoto de 7,0 ou acima de...?
Outro terremoto de 7,0 ou acima de...?
$25,094 Vol.
31 mai 2026
15 de maio
7%
30 de maio
44%
$25,094 Vol.
15 de maio
$3,534 Vol.
7%
30 de maio
$8,313 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS data indicates no magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes worldwide since the M7.4 event 100 km ENE of Miyako, Japan, on April 20, 2026—now 25 days ago—with the prior M7.4 striking 129 km ESE of Bitung, Indonesia, on April 1. Globally, the U.S. Geological Survey records an average of 16-20 such events annually, roughly one every 18-23 days, driven by tectonic stress accumulation along subduction zones and faults in seismically active regions like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Short-term prediction remains impossible due to chaotic rupture dynamics, so market-implied odds reflect statistical baselines adjusted for elapsed time without aftershocks escalating to M7+. Traders should monitor USGS real-time feeds for emerging clusters, with resolution hinging on official moment magnitude confirmations before the market close.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 21, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$25,094Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 21, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS data indicates no magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes worldwide since the M7.4 event 100 km ENE of Miyako, Japan, on April 20, 2026—now 25 days ago—with the prior M7.4 striking 129 km ESE of Bitung, Indonesia, on April 1. Globally, the U.S. Geological Survey records an average of 16-20 such events annually, roughly one every 18-23 days, driven by tectonic stress accumulation along subduction zones and faults in seismically active regions like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Short-term prediction remains impossible due to chaotic rupture dynamics, so market-implied odds reflect statistical baselines adjusted for elapsed time without aftershocks escalating to M7+. Traders should monitor USGS real-time feeds for emerging clusters, with resolution hinging on official moment magnitude confirmations before the market close.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$25,094Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 21, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...USGS data indicates no magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes worldwide since the M7.4 event 100 km ENE of Miyako, Japan, on April 20, 2026—now 25 days ago—with the prior M7.4 striking 129 km ESE of Bitung, Indonesia, on April 1. Globally, the U.S. Geological Survey records an average of 16-20 such events annually, roughly one every 18-23 days, driven by tectonic stress accumulation along subduction zones and faults in seismically active regions like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Short-term prediction remains impossible due to chaotic rupture dynamics, so market-implied odds reflect statistical baselines adjusted for elapsed time without aftershocks escalating to M7+. Traders should monitor USGS real-time feeds for emerging clusters, with resolution hinging on official moment magnitude confirmations before the market close.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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