Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 25°C at 35.5% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature on May 15, narrowly ahead of 24°C (26%) and 26°C (18.5%), reflecting tight clustering in short-range forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration, ECMWF, and GFS amid expected mostly cloudy skies. Yesterday's actual high of 24°C—cooler than May averages due to persistent overcast conditions and light easterly winds—sets a baseline, with cloud cover likely capping insolation and limiting peaks unless afternoon clearing emerges. Differentiating factors include sea breeze timing, urban heat island amplification in Shanghai, and humidity around 50-70%, which could shave 1-2°C off model peaks; next hourly updates from official stations and overnight model runs will sharpen resolution before evening landfall of any clearing.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
25°C 39%
24°C 28%
26°C 18%
23°C 9%
NOVO
$35,733 Vol.
NOVO
$35,733 Vol.
15 mai 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
9%
24°C
28%
25°C
39%
26°C
18%
27°C
7%
28°C
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 39%
24°C 28%
26°C 18%
23°C 9%
NOVO
$35,733 Vol.
NOVO
$35,733 Vol.
15 mai 2026
20°C or below
$4,141 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$3,396 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$4,573 Vol.
1%
23°C
$4,144 Vol.
9%
24°C
$3,837 Vol.
28%
25°C
$2,341 Vol.
39%
26°C
$2,465 Vol.
18%
27°C
$2,826 Vol.
7%
28°C
$4,629 Vol.
1%
29°C
$2,818 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$1,929 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 25°C at 35.5% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature on May 15, narrowly ahead of 24°C (26%) and 26°C (18.5%), reflecting tight clustering in short-range forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration, ECMWF, and GFS amid expected mostly cloudy skies. Yesterday's actual high of 24°C—cooler than May averages due to persistent overcast conditions and light easterly winds—sets a baseline, with cloud cover likely capping insolation and limiting peaks unless afternoon clearing emerges. Differentiating factors include sea breeze timing, urban heat island amplification in Shanghai, and humidity around 50-70%, which could shave 1-2°C off model peaks; next hourly updates from official stations and overnight model runs will sharpen resolution before evening landfall of any clearing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$35,733Data de Término
15 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 25°C at 35.5% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature on May 15, narrowly ahead of 24°C (26%) and 26°C (18.5%), reflecting tight clustering in short-range forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration, ECMWF, and GFS amid expected mostly cloudy skies. Yesterday's actual high of 24°C—cooler than May averages due to persistent overcast conditions and light easterly winds—sets a baseline, with cloud cover likely capping insolation and limiting peaks unless afternoon clearing emerges. Differentiating factors include sea breeze timing, urban heat island amplification in Shanghai, and humidity around 50-70%, which could shave 1-2°C off model peaks; next hourly updates from official stations and overnight model runs will sharpen resolution before evening landfall of any clearing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$35,733Data de Término
15 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 25°C at 35.5% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature on May 15, narrowly ahead of 24°C (26%) and 26°C (18.5%), reflecting tight clustering in short-range forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration, ECMWF, and GFS amid expected mostly cloudy skies. Yesterday's actual high of 24°C—cooler than May averages due to persistent overcast conditions and light easterly winds—sets a baseline, with cloud cover likely capping insolation and limiting peaks unless afternoon clearing emerges. Differentiating factors include sea breeze timing, urban heat island amplification in Shanghai, and humidity around 50-70%, which could shave 1-2°C off model peaks; next hourly updates from official stations and overnight model runs will sharpen resolution before evening landfall of any clearing.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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