National Weather Service forecasts and major model ensembles including GFS and ECMWF currently project Denver’s May 16 high near 78–81 °F, driving closely matched trader probabilities for the 78–79 °F and 80–81 °F bins. A strong upper-level ridge over the central Rockies sustains subsidence and clear skies that maximize daytime insolation, while dry soils and light south-southeast winds enhance surface heating well above the mid-May climatological normal of 73 °F. An approaching weak shortwave trough introduces modest uncertainty in afternoon cloud cover and timing, which could trim peak readings into the mid-70s or allow brief excursions toward 82 °F. Hourly observations at Denver International Airport and the next model update will determine the final range before resolution.